thumbnail

Countries Losing the Most Population by 2070

Guess the countries that are projected to lose the greatest number of residents by the year 2070.
Based on UN estimates. More info here.
Current population as of 3 November 2022.
Quiz by Quizmaster
Rate:
Last updated: November 5, 2022
You have not attempted this quiz yet.
First submittedNovember 10, 2015
Times taken56,988
Average score65.0%
Rating4.34
4:00
Enter answer here
0
 / 20 guessed
The quiz is paused. You have remaining.
Scoring
You scored / = %
This beats or equals % of test takers also scored 100%
The average score is
Your high score is
Your fastest time is
Keep scrolling down for answers and more stats ...
Loss
%
Country
336 m
23%
China
34.2 m
28%
Japan
22.0 m
15%
Russia
15.7 m
30%
South Korea
14.5 m
25%
Italy
13.1 m
18%
Thailand
11.0 m
27%
Poland
9.86 m
27%
Ukraine
9.52 m
20%
Spain
9.38 m
11%
Germany
Loss
%
Country
4.53 m
19%
Taiwan
4.45 m
22%
Romania
2.70 m
24%
Cuba
2.59 m
38%
Bulgaria
2.50 m
24%
Greece
2.50 m
35%
Serbia
2.29 m
9%
North Korea
2.21 m
22%
Hungary
2.14 m
21%
Portugal
2.09 m
10%
Sri Lanka
+5
Level 75
Nov 10, 2015
What about Syria?
+27
Level ∞
Nov 23, 2015
In modern times, birth rate matters a lot more than conflict deaths. Look at the Congo or Iraq for instance.
+18
Level 92
Nov 30, 2015
Matters more than conflict deaths, sure. But with 4 million already having left as refugees, and Amnesty International predicting perhaps as many more to come... I guess it'd depend on how many will return after the conflict.
+18
Level 69
Feb 6, 2016
plattitude - Not a single one will return. All of them will just stay in Germany/Sweden/France because of the enormous social welfare...
+9
Level 74
Mar 22, 2023
@thorvald - spoken like one who is utterly incapable of even trying to see the world through another's eyes. As if free stuff is all there is to life. Many will want to return to their homeland if at all possible, regardless of financial sacrifices.
+5
Level 73
Mar 22, 2023
Also doesn't seem to appreciate that many Syrians don't feel at home even in the most theoretically welcoming countries.
+2
Level 34
Mar 26, 2023
Lol that's not what we see
+36
Level 47
Jan 1, 2017
How can you be so sure? The Bosnian refugees returned home after peace returned to their country.
+11
Level 71
Mar 25, 2018
@Thorvald That's a generalization, many have also been deported and left on their own because of how the skin heads have treated them. The far right is taking off in Europe, Italy just recently elected an anti immigrant party.
+14
Level 43
Oct 23, 2018
Well good luck because it's projected that french will become a minority in their own country thanks to your immigration policies
+18
Level 70
Oct 28, 2018
Really? When will that happen? And how are you defining "French"? It is possible for immigrants to get French citizenship and become French.
+12
Level 85
Mar 20, 2020
The European Left is so schizophrenic - "the earth is overpopulated!", "economic interests shouldn't run everything!" while also saying "we need more people to protect our economic interests!"
+25
Level 78
Jun 24, 2020
To conclude: 1) Immigrants are taking over Western Europe 2) The far-right is taking over W. Europe 3) W. Europe is paradise for refugees because of lavish welfare 4) W. Europe is hell for immigrants because of rampant racism 5) W. European countries will collapse if they don't maintain their population numbers by taking in immigrants 6) W. European countries will collapse as they're overrun by immigrants.
+15
Level 77
Jun 24, 2020
It sure is a good time to be Canadian. We get to smugly judge our neighbour to the south and Europe. We are so isolated that we control the income of refugees easily and we don't really have a far-right campaign to bring back Mussolini. We're all about multiculturalism, though, so any of you complaining about living in Europe are welcome to come here! And the best part is that any anti-immigrant sentimentality would make you hypocrits. Plus, we have a whole province for French people! I love living in a society that has become largely pro-immigrant and pro-multiculturalism. Yeah!
+37
Level 75
Jun 24, 2020
While you're smugly judging us, Dimby, you might ask your indigenous people if they feel those same welcoming vibes.
+7
Level 77
Jun 24, 2020
Oh definitely not. Part of being smug is also being hypocritical. The non-Mussolini thing rocks, though. However, I can say that there is a major push towards addressing the historical wrongs committed in the country. Schools in pretty much all provinces across the country are expected to have a focus on historical wrongs committed against Canadian Indigenous peoples and more of a focus on Indigenous Canadian peoples' cultures. Plus we tend not to celebrate our history like Americans--we more celebrate the idea that we are multicultural. It works pretty well, and I would say there have been vast improvements in my short lifetime.
+22
Level 74
Jun 26, 2017
Syria was actually doing quite well before the civil war. i'm sure there are plenty of people who will return. Living somewhere where you don't fit in isn't fun.
+5
Level 60
Dec 15, 2017
Especially with many Europeans who don't want the refugees to come in the first place.
+11
Level 57
Apr 2, 2018
If the "far right" is taking off, it's because people are getting sick of lefties and progressives.
+2
Level 89
Jun 24, 2020
Well like it or not, they're not going anywhere.
+4
Level 89
Jun 26, 2020
Many SJWs aren’t the brightest lights in the sky, sure, but the far-right isn’t a much better alternative, especially if they support Trump.
+2
Level 58
Mar 9, 2021
I think both extremes are stupid and I think the only reason most people like trump is that there is no other candidate it's either someone you don't like or someone you don't like but has some of your views with an awful personality. And you can't vote for a third party as the general consensus is that a third party will never win and usually gets around 1-2% of the vote at best. I think that a much better example of the far right getting out of control is actually in hungry with Viktor Orban. Who is possibly one of the worst politicians of the era and is much worse than trump ever could have been. He has practically destroyed hungry's governmental system by giving jobs to his best friends letting his rich friends get cabinet jobs and giving his rich friends exclusive contracts that cost more than they should. He uses EU funds to work on useless infrastructure. Personally I'm tired of people not shutting up about trump when there are much worse leaders in the world.
+1
Level 79
Aug 16, 2023
I don't know much about Orban, but from what you say he sounds corrupt. Trump on the other hand is actively hammering away at the building blocks of democratic republican government in the world's most powerful country.
+1
Level 74
Nov 10, 2015
Not even close to believable numbers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
+10
Level ∞
Nov 11, 2015
Why not?
+5
Level 52
Feb 4, 2016
Just out of interest. Where did you get these data from? Russia's government has just announced that they'd achieved population increase second year in a row.
+7
Level ∞
Dec 14, 2017
UN projections.
+28
Level 72
Jun 24, 2020
The Quizmaster likes to get his info from sources that are credible. That's not a word I'd use to describe Russia's government.
+1
Level 58
Mar 23, 2023
The un definitely isn't going around russia and measuring demographic data by hand. All sources lead back to russian (or any other countries) government data
+5
Level 66
Nov 3, 2017
Do you have a source to back that up almightyjosh?
+7
Level 82
Dec 14, 2017
Of course he doesnt
+46
Level 84
Jan 11, 2018
As a general rule, the longer the finger stays on the exclamation mark key, the less weight I give to the opinion.
+1
Level 65
Mar 16, 2020
A source to back what someone finds credible?? That is a rather odd question. Do you get a briefing each week to tell you what you are to believe that week, so you have a source you can refer to?

"It says right here on this here letter, that I don't believe that" there is your source..

+1
Level 43
Jun 24, 2020
That is how belief works..... the most quoted source is the holy bible, but the Koran gets a lot of mentions as well.
+2
Level 72
Nov 11, 2015
I wonder how the list would look like if the data was in percentage of the current population.
+1
Level 78
Jan 19, 2016
That would be interesting indeed.
+1
Level ∞
Dec 14, 2017
Not too much different, actually. Just add in a few of the smaller European countries.
+6
Level 82
Feb 4, 2016
got everything except Cuba... that was a big surprise.
+6
Level 71
Feb 4, 2016
I can't understand why Mexico is not on this list, by 2050 I would expect nearly all Mexicans will be over the border in USA.
+4
Level 59
Feb 4, 2016
Not if Trump can help it!
+49
Level 32
Mar 19, 2016
Trump can't help anything. Except maybe his gargantuan ego.
+12
Level 82
Mar 24, 2018
Trump can't even help his own ego- though everything he does is likely meant to- the way he acts is so obviously the behavior of a man who is deeply insecure and knows, at some level, what a fraud and what an incompetent buffoon he is. Outwardly expressed superiority complexes (like when Trump tweets about what a stable genius he is, or some European comments here about how superior their culture is) are almost always just there to mask an unexpressed inferiority complex.
+9
Level 67
Apr 2, 2019
There are certain people on this site that have ego issues as well, not pointing fingers
+6
Level 71
Mar 15, 2020
No need.
+6
Level 67
Jun 24, 2020
You don't need to point fingers. I'll just assume this comment is about me, as I do regarding all comments.
+3
Level 50
Jun 25, 2020
Mexican immigration to the US peaked in the mid 2000s. By this point, more Mexicans are going back to Mexico than they are coming to the US.
+2
Level 60
Feb 4, 2016
Here's some math on the facts if these numbers seem odd - As of 2014 the crude death rate for the whole world is 7.89 per 1,000 (down from 8.37 per 1,000 in 2009) according to the current CIA World Factbook. If you multiply that by 7 billion people, that's over 55 million deaths worldwide per year. If you multiply that by the 35 years that this quiz is estimating, there would be almost 2 billion deaths - and that's assuming the death rate stays constant. It will likely increase as the Baby Boomer generation ages, and then decrease again. For a country to lose 70 million people over 35 years, you only need 2 million more deaths than births. With China's death rate at 7.44 deaths/1,000 population, the number of dead per year is est. at 9.5 million vs. a birth rate of 1.6 per woman. Well under population replacement levels.
+1
Level 53
Feb 4, 2016
China has relaxed its one-child policy to two children...but I don't think it's catching on. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-31450689
+2
Level 29
Feb 4, 2016
I got all but South Korea and Taiwan. Enjoy your life.
+2
Level 77
Feb 4, 2016
Okay, I guess somebody has to say it and I just can't resist...do you really intend to end every comment you make with "Enjoy your life?" Have a nice day. Live long and prosper. Let's be careful out there. And that's the way it is... :-)
+1
Level 65
Feb 5, 2016
I commented once on one of his quizzes saying "Enjoy your life". Then I deleted it...
+1
Level 75
Jun 24, 2020
I always thought it was nice. Am I missing something?
+1
Level 74
Mar 22, 2023
It might be nice. Hard to say without tone to help decipher. It's certainly odd.
+2
Level 58
Feb 6, 2016
What about Kiribati and the Maldives, which through climate change (or rather, raising sea level) are becoming more and more uninhabitable?
+14
Level 82
Feb 8, 2016
The total population of Kiribati is just over 100k people. Even if they lose every single one of their inhabitants by 2050 they still wouldn't make this list. Same story for the Maldives (345k)
+2
Level 58
Feb 10, 2016
Ah! I misread the question, thought it was all shrinking countries. Thank you for setting me right :)
+3
Level 60
Dec 15, 2017
Maybe if it were by percentage, then I'm sure many small countries would make the list.
+1
Level 69
Dec 7, 2016
This one hit me hard.
+4
Level 76
Dec 15, 2017
Wow, never would have guessed Thailand or Sri Lanka. I imagined their populations to be increasing fairly quickly.
+1
Level 55
Mar 18, 2020
Yeah...
+1
Level 68
Mar 22, 2023
contraily to popular belief, demographic transition in south- and south-east Asia is almost over. Population will continue to increase slowly in most of these countries due to better quality of life, then stagnate. There are very few countries outside subsaharian Africa where fertility rate is over 3 nowadays.
+1
Level 80
Mar 24, 2018
Jesus Eastern Europe is really on the decline.
+2
Level 76
Mar 15, 2020
Low birth rates and lots of emigration to western Europe
+1
Level 75
Mar 24, 2018
I'm not the brightest bulb in the pack, so could someone explain these answers to me? I don't see any rhyme or reason for the trends - some Asian countries, some European countries and Cuba. I get China, but for the others what is causing the birth rate to drop in these countries more than others?
+7
Level 43
Jun 24, 2020
The Eastern European countries and the richer East Asian countries have a severely declining birth rate. High birth rates tend to be higher in poorer countries with a higher infant mortality. If your child is likely to survive until adulthood there is less incentive to have more children.The western European countries are increasing in size due to immigration, mostly people from poorer countries who are escaping war or looking for a better life for their gaggle of children. As Asian countries tend to be less enticing for immigrants (or flat out deny them), and the Eastern European countries are typically viewed as worse than their Western neighbours, this list largely does not surprise me.
+1
Level 75
Jun 24, 2020
Thank you. You explained it well.
+1
Level 38
Mar 24, 2018
Maldives?
+1
Level 51
Jun 19, 2020
Maldives will only lose like 10,000 people.
+1
Level 38
Mar 24, 2018
...
+1
Level 55
Mar 24, 2018
Why aren't Northern European countries experiencing such drops in population like Germany or Italy? i.e Countries like U.K, Ireland, Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark et cetera.
+1
Level 71
Mar 25, 2018
UK Figures up due to immigrant family numbers. "Last year saw the highest ever number of UK births to women who were born outside the country, official figures have revealed. Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that 27.5 per cent of all births in England and Wales were to women who had arrived here from abroad.

Poland, Pakistan and India being the highest birth rate immigrant nations/

+3
Level 82
Apr 1, 2019
Sweden and Norway are both growing. Not very rapidly, but still growing. I think some of this is that they receive a larger number of immigrants relative to the size of their smaller populations but I'm not sure. Finland and Denmark are projected to start losing population by 2035 but not very quickly and they don't have as much population to lose in the first place.
+2
Level 79
Nov 5, 2022
News this week was that 1 in 6 of those living in the UK was born outside the UK. There's just one of them we'd like to send back to his place of birth. He's called Boris Johnson - so could you please take him back, America? Chz
+1
Level 76
Aug 2, 2023
A major reason is that they tend to have excellent social welfare systems.
+5
Level 74
Mar 25, 2018
Sounds good, but it is more likely due to immigration. Neither Norway nor Sweden nor Denmark are currently at replacement rate for births: Sweden is at 1.88, Norway is at 1.75, Denmark is at 1.69. These are only slightly better than Italy's rate of 1.37, and Italy is on the verge of disappearing. Replacement rate has to be higher than 2.1 births per woman. Even Iceland is only at 1.93.
+1
Level 82
Apr 1, 2019
If those birth rates are accurate then it probably is immigration. Also maybe a little bit longer life spans? Though I doubt that makes a big difference and Italy has one of the high life expectancies in the world.
+1
Level 75
Apr 1, 2019
Somehow I forgot Ukraine
+2
Level 87
Mar 15, 2020
So Greece stands to lose more than a quarter of its population, and it's forcing would-be immigrants out? I guess it's like the dying towns of rural Kansas, dependent on immigrant labor, voting overwhelmingly for Trump.
+11
Level ∞
Mar 15, 2020
I never understood this argument. No doubt the people of Greece are more concerned about losing their culture than they are about about a few percentage points of GDP. A declining population isn't the end of the world and in some cases (like Japan) might be beneficial due to extreme overcrowding.
+3
Level 71
Mar 15, 2020
I agree, losing population is not the end of the world. As the overall world population rises there is a tendency for some countries that allow immigration to slowly change into another country and take on other countries cultures, if Greece loses population and refuses immigrants it's culture will carry on nicely.
+1
Level 71
Jan 6, 2022
I'm not an expert on the issue, but I get the feeling nativism/anti-immigrant sentiment is very different in the US vs. Europe. Here, economic arguments are very common in a sense; things like "immigrants are taking our jobs." From the perspective of these blue-collar workers, it doesn't matter whether immigrants contribute to GDP growth; they care more about the job market and whether they'll be employed. But, even though there's plenty of racism, I think arguments that outright say "immigrants are ruining our culture" are less common here, since America isn't defined by a single cultural group. In contrast, cultural arguments are very common in Europe, with its many nation-states, and from what I know, nativism can be found even among middle/upper-class people who are just naturally suspicious of foreigners.

I'm not saying one of these arguments is better than the other (I disagree with both), but I just want to point out that different people may have different priorities.

+1
Level 71
Jan 6, 2022
Also like I said, I know less about immigration issues in Europe than I do in America, so please correct me if I'm wrong.
+1
Level 76
Nov 21, 2022
Europe is not united in this issue. In some sense it's everyone for themselves.

The cultural (and racial) arguments are used by populist and other, often right wing, movements.

Economic arguments are used, but more in the sense of "they come here to live on welfare / abuse our system".

The governments have, lets be honest, been naïve, hasty and chaotic. In many ways.

This is, of course, just the tip... and you know how that goes.

+12
Level 84
Mar 27, 2020
I hope they find all these people.
+4
Level 76
Jun 24, 2020
They should check under the sofa. That's where everything I lose usually ends up.
+1
Level ∞
Jun 24, 2020
I heard a stat once that 8% of Americans, having lost their TV remote, typically find it in the fridge.
+8
Level ∞
Jun 24, 2020
And before you say, haha, Americans are so stupid, consider that believing in that stat is even stupider :)
+1
Level 65
Jun 28, 2020
My mother always lost her coffeemug. They usualy would end up in the shower. There was always atleast one mug there. But you could find them everywhere around the house..

Always getting distracted halfway of doing something.

+1
Level 82
Jun 24, 2020
To me it's not so concerning that we are losing population in some places (the world could stand to lose about 80-90% of what it's got now and it would be just fine. We could develop new economic models that don't require constant population growth to sustain themselves), but rather that it's growing so fast in others. And the implications in terms of population displacement, cultural shifts, potential wars and resource depletion that these new imbalances will create.
+2
Level 46
Jun 25, 2020
Westerners need to start having more kids.
+9
Level 82
Jun 26, 2020
Nah. In stable, prosperous societies the norm is for birth rates to drop and populations to decline. We need to get the rest of the world up to the same standards so they have fewer kids.
+1
Level 72
Sep 4, 2023
I'm quite late at responding to this (and it's the same spiel I've posted on Jetpunk before), but a good percentage of the world is having fewer kids. Many societies seeing population growth have gone down to replacement rate, and it's just taking a few generations for that effect to carry up the entire population tree (Bangladesh is be a good example). It's mostly just Africa and a handful of countries in Asia that still have such high fertility rates.

Here's a map: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/01/TFR-HighRes-2020.png

Of course, it would be nice for all countries to be at around replacement rate (which will likely happen… eventually), but it's not as apocalyptic as many people think.

+1
Level 52
Sep 1, 2021
this is just a crap talk. emigrants are coming everyday so europe should have a high population
+1
Level 74
Mar 22, 2023
Anecdata
+1
Level 72
Sep 4, 2023
yeah, immigrants are coming to the European countries that aren't on this list
+1
Level 51
Sep 30, 2021
This quiz should be ranked by percentage. China's percentage is a lot smaller than Ukraine.
+1
Level 58
Jul 1, 2022
i dont think this is reliable, it doesnt contain of countries that will experience massive migration because of climate change, like india nigeria congo, weather could be to extreme for living there
+1
Level 67
May 18, 2023
that's almost impossible to predict, so its best to just leave it out. Plus, we might have solutions for that in the future anyway (hopefully).
+4
Level 72
Mar 22, 2023
If we look back to the projections of population used in 1970, we would find so many of them to be incredibly off. It never ceases to amaze me that statisticians still point to current trends and think they will be able to accurately predict 50 years worth of human behavior based solely on current data and percentages.
+2
Level 44
Mar 22, 2023
A lot of these countries - eg: Cuba, South Korea, Spain ... have high education rates - people are making thoughtful decisions to have small families or no children. People are rejecting ancient scriptural propaganda to procreate and/or not use birth control...

... Indeed, lesser population growth is the main way we can save this planet - (I recall Malthus' theory...)

+1
Level 43
Mar 26, 2023
To make thoughtful decisions to have children and really care for them, give them love, the best possible education, the sense of responsibility towards the planet and other people, a.s.o. is very good.

To opt deliberately for a selfish materialistic couple life with no kid is pathetic.

Children are the future of mankind.

+2
Level 44
Mar 28, 2023
to Coeck - I agree with your first comment entirely. However, opting not to have children does not therefore equal leading a a selfish, materialistic or pathetic life.

Of course having children is important to humankind - but if the average family has 5+ children the planet is doomed.

+1
Level 75
Jun 27, 2023
What's notable is that all the countries with declining population are secular or at least mostly apathetic about religion. The western countries without predicted decline have large minorities with strong religious views (e.g. evangelicals in the USA, muslims in France).
+1
Level 66
Jun 28, 2023
Such long term predictions are mostly silly if you ask me. People just look at the current development and assume it will continue on with no changes whatsoever.
+1
Level ∞
Jun 28, 2023
I wonder how the predictions from 1970 would have looked? My guess is too high in general, but that the ranking of countries would be mostly accurate.

In 1970, you could have looked at the population pyramid of Nigeria and confidently predicted that it would surpass Russia. And that's indeed what did happen. In nearly every case, a prediction from 1970 about the ranking of countries would have been accurate, with a couple exceptions such as China (which introduced the one child policy in 1979).

One the other hand, predictions of famine have been wrong time and time again. People might have said "Ethiopia will never have 100 million people. They'd all starve". And yet, those people would have been spectacularly wrong. Today Ethiopia has 126 million and they have a much HIGHER life expectancy than any time in the country's history.

I'd say that, if anything, most people undervalue these predictions.