Countries Losing the Most Population by 2070

Guess the countries that are projected to lose the greatest number of residents between 2020 and 2070.
2020 population: Worldometers
2070 population: UN estimates - medium fertility variant
Quiz by Quizmaster
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Last updated: March 14, 2020
First submittedNovember 10, 2015
Times taken35,399
Rating4.19
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Loss
%
Country
181 m
13
China
36.0 m
28
Japan
16.7 m
11
Russia
14.0 m
32
Ukraine
13.6 m
23
Italy
12.7 m
25
South Korea
12.5 m
18
Thailand
9.05 m
24
Poland
8.73 m
19
Spain
7.32 m
8.7
Germany
Loss
%
Country
5.11 m
27
Romania
4.30 m
18
Taiwan
2.87 m
33
Serbia
2.71 m
24
Cuba
2.67 m
26
Greece
2.46 m
25
Bulgaria
2.23 m
22
Portugal
2.00 m
21
Hungary
1.57 m
7.3
Sri Lanka
1.44 m
15
Belarus
+4
Level 80
Nov 10, 2015
Thailand's current population is about 67 million. The UN projections at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldageing19502050/pdf/195thail.pdf say Thailand's population in 2050 will be over 82 million. How does that equate to losing 2 million people?
+9
Level ∞
Nov 11, 2015
Thailand's birth rate is 1.41. The projections you linked to are likely out of date.
+10
Level 47
Jan 1, 2017
Thailand's net migration rate is basically 0.
+5
Level 33
Feb 7, 2017
Not really, alot of people come from myanmar,laos,cambodia and vietnam to thailand.
+1
Level 15
Nov 23, 2017
Noted.
+7
Level 80
Mar 24, 2018
There are many migrants coming in to Thailand from Myanmar. But there are also quite a lot of Thai people leaving to go other places like the United States, China, and the Middle East.
+4
Level 70
Apr 1, 2019
Quizmaster, do you mean fertility rate (i.e. total live births per female)? Birth rates are usually measured in births per 1000 per year - and that can't be the number for that.
+5
Level 74
Nov 10, 2015
What about Syria?
+15
Level ∞
Nov 23, 2015
In modern times, birth rate matters a lot more than conflict deaths. Look at the Congo or Iraq for instance.
+12
Level 88
Nov 30, 2015
Matters more than conflict deaths, sure. But with 4 million already having left as refugees, and Amnesty International predicting perhaps as many more to come... I guess it'd depend on how many will return after the conflict.
+9
Level 65
Feb 6, 2016
plattitude - Not a single one will return. All of them will just stay in Germany/Sweden/France because of the enormous social welfare...
+25
Level 47
Jan 1, 2017
How can you be so sure? The Bosnian refugees returned home after peace returned to their country.
+7
Level 55
Mar 25, 2018
@Thorvald That's a generalization, many have also been deported and left on their own because of how the skin heads have treated them. The far right is taking off in Europe, Italy just recently elected an anti immigrant party.
+11
Level 68
Mar 25, 2018
Despite the moans of racists (who we're not supposed to call racists anymore, as everyone, especially they, know that being a racist is nasty) low birth rate and people living longer mean immigration is necessary for our future in northern Europe.
+8
Level 43
Oct 23, 2018
Well good luck because it's projected that french will become a minority in their own country thanks to your immigration policies
+12
Level 59
Oct 28, 2018
Really? When will that happen? And how are you defining "French"? It is possible for immigrants to get French citizenship and become French.
+10
Level 66
Mar 20, 2020
The European Left is so schizophrenic - "the earth is overpopulated!", "economic interests shouldn't run everything!" while also saying "we need more people to protect our economic interests!"
+9
Level 74
Jun 24, 2020
To conclude: 1) Immigrants are taking over Western Europe 2) The far-right is taking over W. Europe 3) W. Europe is paradise for refugees because of lavish welfare 4) W. Europe is hell for immigrants because of rampant racism 5) W. European countries will collapse if they don't maintain their population numbers by taking in immigrants 6) W. European countries will collapse as they're overrun by immigrants.
+7
Level 54
Jun 24, 2020
It sure is a good time to be Canadian. We get to smugly judge our neighbour to the south and Europe. We are so isolated that we control the income of refugees easily and we don't really have a far-right campaign to bring back Mussolini. We're all about multiculturalism, though, so any of you complaining about living in Europe are welcome to come here! And the best part is that any anti-immigrant sentimentality would make you hypocrits. Plus, we have a whole province for French people! I love living in a society that has become largely pro-immigrant and pro-multiculturalism. Yeah!
+10
Level 79
Jun 24, 2020
While you're smugly judging us, Dimby, you might ask your indigenous people if they feel those same welcoming vibes.
+5
Level 54
Jun 24, 2020
Oh definitely not. Part of being smug is also being hypocritical. The non-Mussolini thing rocks, though. However, I can say that there is a major push towards addressing the historical wrongs committed in the country. Schools in pretty much all provinces across the country are expected to have a focus on historical wrongs committed against Canadian Indigenous peoples and more of a focus on Indigenous Canadian peoples' cultures. Plus we tend not to celebrate our history like Americans--we more celebrate the idea that we are multicultural. It works pretty well, and I would say there have been vast improvements in my short lifetime.
+16
Level 70
Jun 26, 2017
Syria was actually doing quite well before the civil war. i'm sure there are plenty of people who will return. Living somewhere where you don't fit in isn't fun.
+4
Level 64
Dec 15, 2017
Especially with many Europeans who don't want the refugees to come in the first place.
+7
Level 57
Apr 2, 2018
If the "far right" is taking off, it's because people are getting sick of lefties and progressives.
+1
Level 83
Jun 24, 2020
Well like it or not, they're not going anywhere.
+1
Level 83
Jun 26, 2020
Many SJWs aren’t the brightest lights in the sky, sure, but the far-right isn’t a much better alternative, especially if they support Trump.
+1
Level 70
Nov 10, 2015
Not even close to believable numbers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
+9
Level ∞
Nov 11, 2015
Why not?
+3
Level 54
Feb 4, 2016
Just out of interest. Where did you get these data from? Russia's government has just announced that they'd achieved population increase second year in a row.
+7
Level ∞
Dec 14, 2017
UN projections.
+9
Level 73
Jun 24, 2020
The Quizmaster likes to get his info from sources that are credible. That's not a word I'd use to describe Russia's government.
+4
Level 62
Nov 3, 2017
Do you have a source to back that up almightyjosh?
+5
Level 78
Dec 14, 2017
Of course he doesnt
+32
Level 79
Jan 11, 2018
As a general rule, the longer the finger stays on the exclamation mark key, the less weight I give to the opinion.
+1
Level 67
Mar 16, 2020
A source to back what someone finds credible?? That is a rather odd question. Do you get a briefing each week to tell you what you are to believe that week, so you have a source you can refer to?

"It says right here on this here letter, that I don't believe that" there is your source..

+1
Level 31
Jun 24, 2020
That is how belief works..... the most quoted source is the holy bible, but the Koran gets a lot of mentions as well.
+1
Level 69
Nov 11, 2015
I wonder how the list would look like if the data was in percentage of the current population.
+1
Level 72
Jan 19, 2016
That would be interesting indeed.
+1
Level ∞
Dec 14, 2017
Not too much different, actually. Just add in a few of the smaller European countries.
+5
Level 80
Feb 4, 2016
got everything except Cuba... that was a big surprise.
+5
Level 70
Feb 4, 2016
I can't understand why Mexico is not on this list, by 2050 I would expect nearly all Mexicans will be over the border in USA.
+3
Level 62
Feb 4, 2016
Not if Trump can help it!
+37
Level 33
Mar 19, 2016
Trump can't help anything. Except maybe his gargantuan ego.
+7
Level 80
Mar 24, 2018
Trump can't even help his own ego- though everything he does is likely meant to- the way he acts is so obviously the behavior of a man who is deeply insecure and knows, at some level, what a fraud and what an incompetent buffoon he is. Outwardly expressed superiority complexes (like when Trump tweets about what a stable genius he is, or some European comments here about how superior their culture is) are almost always just there to mask an unexpressed inferiority complex.
+3
Level 60
Apr 2, 2019
There are certain people on this site that have ego issues as well, not pointing fingers
+3
Level 70
Mar 15, 2020
No need.
+2
Level 65
Jun 24, 2020
You don't need to point fingers. I'll just assume this comment is about me, as I do regarding all comments.
+3
Level 53
Jun 25, 2020
Mexican immigration to the US peaked in the mid 2000s. By this point, more Mexicans are going back to Mexico than they are coming to the US.
+2
Level 63
Feb 4, 2016
Here's some math on the facts if these numbers seem odd - As of 2014 the crude death rate for the whole world is 7.89 per 1,000 (down from 8.37 per 1,000 in 2009) according to the current CIA World Factbook. If you multiply that by 7 billion people, that's over 55 million deaths worldwide per year. If you multiply that by the 35 years that this quiz is estimating, there would be almost 2 billion deaths - and that's assuming the death rate stays constant. It will likely increase as the Baby Boomer generation ages, and then decrease again. For a country to lose 70 million people over 35 years, you only need 2 million more deaths than births. With China's death rate at 7.44 deaths/1,000 population, the number of dead per year is est. at 9.5 million vs. a birth rate of 1.6 per woman. Well under population replacement levels.
+1
Level 58
Feb 4, 2016
China has relaxed its one-child policy to two children...but I don't think it's catching on. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-31450689
+1
Level 30
Feb 4, 2016
I got all but South Korea and Taiwan. Enjoy your life.
+2
Level 79
Feb 4, 2016
Okay, I guess somebody has to say it and I just can't resist...do you really intend to end every comment you make with "Enjoy your life?" Have a nice day. Live long and prosper. Let's be careful out there. And that's the way it is... :-)
+1
Level 64
Feb 5, 2016
I commented once on one of his quizzes saying "Enjoy your life". Then I deleted it...
+1
Level 79
Jun 24, 2020
I always thought it was nice. Am I missing something?
+2
Level 55
Feb 6, 2016
What about Kiribati and the Maldives, which through climate change (or rather, raising sea level) are becoming more and more uninhabitable?
+10
Level 80
Feb 8, 2016
The total population of Kiribati is just over 100k people. Even if they lose every single one of their inhabitants by 2050 they still wouldn't make this list. Same story for the Maldives (345k)
+2
Level 55
Feb 10, 2016
Ah! I misread the question, thought it was all shrinking countries. Thank you for setting me right :)
+1
Level 64
Dec 15, 2017
Maybe if it were by percentage, then I'm sure many small countries would make the list.
+1
Level 63
Dec 7, 2016
This one hit me hard.
+2
Level 71
Dec 15, 2017
Wow, never would have guessed Thailand or Sri Lanka. I imagined their populations to be increasing fairly quickly.
+1
Level 51
Mar 18, 2020
Yeah...
+1
Level 74
Mar 24, 2018
Jesus Eastern Europe is really on the decline.
+1
Level 71
Mar 15, 2020
Low birth rates and lots of emigration to western Europe
+1
Level 79
Mar 24, 2018
I'm not the brightest bulb in the pack, so could someone explain these answers to me? I don't see any rhyme or reason for the trends - some Asian countries, some European countries and Cuba. I get China, but for the others what is causing the birth rate to drop in these countries more than others?
+1
Level 31
Jun 24, 2020
The Eastern European countries and the richer East Asian countries have a severely declining birth rate. High birth rates tend to be higher in poorer countries with a higher infant mortality. If your child is likely to survive until adulthood there is less incentive to have more children.The western European countries are increasing in size due to immigration, mostly people from poorer countries who are escaping war or looking for a better life for their gaggle of children. As Asian countries tend to be less enticing for immigrants (or flat out deny them), and the Eastern European countries are typically viewed as worse than their Western neighbours, this list largely does not surprise me.
+1
Level 79
Jun 24, 2020
Thank you. You explained it well.
+1
Level 40
Mar 24, 2018
Maldives?
+1
Level 49
Jun 19, 2020
Maldives will only lose like 10,000 people.
+1
Level 40
Mar 24, 2018
...
+1
Level 55
Mar 24, 2018
Why aren't Northern European countries experiencing such drops in population like Germany or Italy? i.e Countries like U.K, Ireland, Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark et cetera.
+1
Level 70
Mar 25, 2018
UK Figures up due to immigrant family numbers. "Last year saw the highest ever number of UK births to women who were born outside the country, official figures have revealed. Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that 27.5 per cent of all births in England and Wales were to women who had arrived here from abroad.

Poland, Pakistan and India being the highest birth rate immigrant nations/

+2
Level 80
Apr 1, 2019
Sweden and Norway are both growing. Not very rapidly, but still growing. I think some of this is that they receive a larger number of immigrants relative to the size of their smaller populations but I'm not sure. Finland and Denmark are projected to start losing population by 2035 but not very quickly and they don't have as much population to lose in the first place.
+3
Level 68
Mar 25, 2018
Sounds good, but it is more likely due to immigration. Neither Norway nor Sweden nor Denmark are currently at replacement rate for births: Sweden is at 1.88, Norway is at 1.75, Denmark is at 1.69. These are only slightly better than Italy's rate of 1.37, and Italy is on the verge of disappearing. Replacement rate has to be higher than 2.1 births per woman. Even Iceland is only at 1.93.
+1
Level 80
Apr 1, 2019
If those birth rates are accurate then it probably is immigration. Also maybe a little bit longer life spans? Though I doubt that makes a big difference and Italy has one of the high life expectancies in the world.
+1
Level 72
Apr 1, 2019
Somehow I forgot Ukraine
+2
Level 83
Mar 15, 2020
So Greece stands to lose more than a quarter of its population, and it's forcing would-be immigrants out? I guess it's like the dying towns of rural Kansas, dependent on immigrant labor, voting overwhelmingly for Trump.
+8
Level ∞
Mar 15, 2020
I never understood this argument. No doubt the people of Greece are more concerned about losing their culture than they are about about a few percentage points of GDP. A declining population isn't the end of the world and in some cases (like Japan) might be beneficial due to extreme overcrowding.
+2
Level 70
Mar 15, 2020
I agree, losing population is not the end of the world. As the overall world population rises there is a tendency for some countries that allow immigration to slowly change into another country and take on other countries cultures, if Greece loses population and refuses immigrants it's culture will carry on nicely.
+9
Level 78
Mar 27, 2020
I hope they find all these people.
+2
Level 71
Jun 24, 2020
They should check under the sofa. That's where everything I lose usually ends up.
+1
Level ∞
Jun 24, 2020
I heard a stat once that 8% of Americans, having lost their TV remote, typically find it in the fridge.
+2
Level ∞
Jun 24, 2020
And before you say, haha, Americans are so stupid, consider that believing in that stat is even stupider :)
+1
Level 67
Jun 28, 2020
My mother always lost her coffeemug. They usualy would end up in the shower. There was always atleast one mug there. But you could find them everywhere around the house..

Always getting distracted halfway of doing something.

+1
Level 80
Jun 24, 2020
To me it's not so concerning that we are losing population in some places (the world could stand to lose about 80-90% of what it's got now and it would be just fine. We could develop new economic models that don't require constant population growth to sustain themselves), but rather that it's growing so fast in others. And the implications in terms of population displacement, cultural shifts, potential wars and resource depletion that these new imbalances will create.
+1
Level 48
Jun 25, 2020
Westerners need to start having more kids.
+4
Level 80
Jun 26, 2020
Nah. In stable, prosperous societies the norm is for birth rates to drop and populations to decline. We need to get the rest of the world up to the same standards so they have fewer kids.