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Shrinking Countries

Guess the countries that are projected to lose the greatest number of residents between 2017 and 2070.
2070 numbers by UN estimates - medium fertility variant
Current numbers according to Wikipedia, December 2017
Last updated: December 14, 2017
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#
Country
190 m
China
31.5 m
Japan
26.1 m
Russia
16.1 m
Thailand
14.0 m
Germany
12.3 m
Ukraine
10.2 m
Poland
8.56 m
Taiwan
8.16 m
Italy
6.82 m
Romania
#
Country
6.35 m
South Korea
5.43 m
Spain
2.92 m
Bulgaria
2.77 m
Sri Lanka
2.44 m
Cuba
2.40 m
Hungary
2.24 m
Greece
2.08 m
Belarus
2.01 m
Portugal
1.30 m
Czech Republic
+2
level 75
Nov 10, 2015
Thailand's current population is about 67 million. The UN projections at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldageing19502050/pdf/195thail.pdf say Thailand's population in 2050 will be over 82 million. How does that equate to losing 2 million people?
+1
level ∞
Nov 11, 2015
Thailand's birth rate is 1.41. The projections you linked to are likely out of date.
+2
level 48
Jan 1, 2017
Thailand's net migration rate is basically 0.
+4
level 33
Feb 7, 2017
Not really, alot of people come from myanmar,laos,cambodia and vietnam to thailand.
+1
level 15
Nov 23, 2017
Noted.
+3
level 75
Mar 24, 2018
There are many migrants coming in to Thailand from Myanmar. But there are also quite a lot of Thai people leaving to go other places like the United States, China, and the Middle East.
+1
level 66
Apr 1, 2019
Quizmaster, do you mean fertility rate (i.e. total live births per female)? Birth rates are usually measured in births per 1000 per year - and that can't be the number for that.
+3
level 71
Nov 10, 2015
What about Syria?
+5
level ∞
Nov 23, 2015
In modern times, birth rate matters a lot more than conflict deaths. Look at the Congo or Iraq for instance.
+7
level 82
Nov 30, 2015
Matters more than conflict deaths, sure. But with 4 million already having left as refugees, and Amnesty International predicting perhaps as many more to come... I guess it'd depend on how many will return after the conflict.
+4
level 65
Feb 6, 2016
plattitude - Not a single one will return. All of them will just stay in Germany/Sweden/France because of the enormous social welfare...
+16
level 48
Jan 1, 2017
How can you be so sure? The Bosnian refugees returned home after peace returned to their country.
+2
level 54
Mar 25, 2018
@Thorvald That's a generalization, many have also been deported and left on their own because of how the skin heads have treated them. The far right is taking off in Europe, Italy just recently elected an anti immigrant party.
+2
level 65
Mar 25, 2018
Despite the moans of racists (who we're not supposed to call racists anymore, as everyone, especially they, know that being a racist is nasty) low birth rate and people living longer mean immigration is necessary for our future in northern Europe.
+1
level 42
Oct 23, 2018
Well good luck because it's projected that french will become a minority in their own country thanks to your immigration policies
+4
level 55
Oct 28, 2018
Really? When will that happen? And how are you defining "French"? It is possible for immigrants to get French citizenship and become French.
+8
level 60
Jun 26, 2017
Syria was actually doing quite well before the civil war. i'm sure there are plenty of people who will return. Living somewhere where you don't fit in isn't fun.
+3
level 63
Dec 15, 2017
Especially with many Europeans who don't want the refugees to come in the first place.
+2
level 55
Apr 2, 2018
If the "far right" is taking off, it's because people are getting sick of lefties and progressives.
+1
level 67
Nov 10, 2015
Not even close to believable numbers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
+6
level ∞
Nov 11, 2015
Why not?
+3
level 55
Feb 4, 2016
Just out of interest. Where did you get these data from? Russia's government has just announced that they'd achieved population increase second year in a row.
+4
level ∞
Dec 14, 2017
UN projections.
+3
level 59
Nov 3, 2017
Do you have a source to back that up almightyjosh?
+4
level 73
Dec 14, 2017
Of course he doesnt
+18
level 75
Jan 11, 2018
As a general rule, the longer the finger stays on the exclamation mark key, the less weight I give to the opinion.
+1
level 64
Nov 11, 2015
I wonder how the list would look like if the data was in percentage of the current population.
+1
level 67
Jan 19, 2016
That would be interesting indeed.
+1
level ∞
Dec 14, 2017
Not too much different, actually. Just add in a few of the smaller European countries.
+3
level 75
Feb 4, 2016
got everything except Cuba... that was a big surprise.
+4
level 67
Feb 4, 2016
I can't understand why Mexico is not on this list, by 2050 I would expect nearly all Mexicans will be over the border in USA.
+2
level 64
Feb 4, 2016
Not if Trump can help it!
+19
level 35
Mar 19, 2016
Trump can't help anything. Except maybe his gargantuan ego.
+2
level 48
Apr 4, 2017
THIS comment chain cracked me up
+3
level 75
Mar 24, 2018
Trump can't even help his own ego- though everything he does is likely meant to- the way he acts is so obviously the behavior of a man who is deeply insecure and knows, at some level, what a fraud and what an incompetent buffoon he is. Outwardly expressed superiority complexes (like when Trump tweets about what a stable genius he is, or some European comments here about how superior their culture is) are almost always just there to mask an unexpressed inferiority complex.
+1
level 54
Apr 2, 2019
There are certain people on this site that have ego issues as well, not pointing fingers
+2
level 65
Feb 4, 2016
Here's some math on the facts if these numbers seem odd - As of 2014 the crude death rate for the whole world is 7.89 per 1,000 (down from 8.37 per 1,000 in 2009) according to the current CIA World Factbook. If you multiply that by 7 billion people, that's over 55 million deaths worldwide per year. If you multiply that by the 35 years that this quiz is estimating, there would be almost 2 billion deaths - and that's assuming the death rate stays constant. It will likely increase as the Baby Boomer generation ages, and then decrease again. For a country to lose 70 million people over 35 years, you only need 2 million more deaths than births. With China's death rate at 7.44 deaths/1,000 population, the number of dead per year is est. at 9.5 million vs. a birth rate of 1.6 per woman. Well under population replacement levels.
+1
level 35
Feb 4, 2016
But that is Chinas current agenda. I assume they will abandon or at least alleviate the one child policy some where down the line. The countries that are worrying are those with a poorer birth rate without government suppression.
+1
level 58
Feb 4, 2016
China has relaxed its one-child policy to two children...but I don't think it's catching on. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-31450689
+1
level 29
Feb 4, 2016
I got all but South Korea and Taiwan. Enjoy your life.
+2
level 75
Feb 4, 2016
Okay, I guess somebody has to say it and I just can't resist...do you really intend to end every comment you make with "Enjoy your life?" Have a nice day. Live long and prosper. Let's be careful out there. And that's the way it is... :-)
+1
level 57
Feb 5, 2016
I commented once on one of his quizzes saying "Enjoy your life". Then I deleted it...
+1
level 55
Feb 6, 2016
What about Kiribati and the Maldives, which through climate change (or rather, raising sea level) are becoming more and more uninhabitable?
+5
level 75
Feb 8, 2016
The total population of Kiribati is just over 100k people. Even if they lose every single one of their inhabitants by 2050 they still wouldn't make this list. Same story for the Maldives (345k)
+2
level 55
Feb 10, 2016
Ah! I misread the question, thought it was all shrinking countries. Thank you for setting me right :)
+1
level 63
Dec 15, 2017
Maybe if it were by percentage, then I'm sure many small countries would make the list.
+2
level 32
Jun 18, 2016
how did germany end up on this list with all the imigrants
+4
level ∞
Dec 14, 2017
The six most important words in demographics are birth rate, birth rate, birth rate.
+1
level 61
Dec 7, 2016
This one hit me hard.
+1
level 48
Apr 4, 2017
BAsically name every eastern european/eastern asian country you can
+4
level 67
Mar 24, 2018
Like Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece 😉
+1
level ∞
Dec 14, 2017
One caveat with the latest update. The Taiwan numbers are estimated by me based on official Taiwanese projections for 2060. According to the UN, Taiwan doesn't exist.
+1
level 66
Dec 14, 2017
What's going on in China and Taiwan? Is it just they're becoming more industrialized/high tech so young people choose to focus on careers instead of families? It's crazy how the projections for China and India differ by hundreds of millions
+3
level 60
Mar 24, 2018
The UN recognizes Palestine as a state and Taiwan as fraudulent. SMH -_-
+1
level 68
Dec 15, 2017
Wow, never would have guessed Thailand or Sri Lanka. I imagined their populations to be increasing fairly quickly.
+1
level 70
Mar 24, 2018
Jesus Eastern Europe is really on the decline.
+1
level 75
Mar 24, 2018
I'm not the brightest bulb in the pack, so could someone explain these answers to me? I don't see any rhyme or reason for the trends - some Asian countries, some European countries and Cuba. I get China, but for the others what is causing the birth rate to drop in these countries more than others?
+1
level 31
Mar 24, 2018
Maldives?
+1
level 31
Mar 24, 2018
...
+1
level 49
Mar 24, 2018
Why aren't Northern European countries experiencing such drops in population like Germany or Italy? i.e Countries like U.K, Ireland, Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark et cetera.
+1
level 67
Mar 25, 2018
UK Figures up due to immigrant family numbers. "Last year saw the highest ever number of UK births to women who were born outside the country, official figures have revealed. Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that 27.5 per cent of all births in England and Wales were to women who had arrived here from abroad. Poland, Pakistan and India being the highest birth rate immigrant nations/
+1
level 75
Apr 1, 2019
Sweden and Norway are both growing. Not very rapidly, but still growing. I think some of this is that they receive a larger number of immigrants relative to the size of their smaller populations but I'm not sure. Finland and Denmark are projected to start losing population by 2035 but not very quickly and they don't have as much population to lose in the first place.
+1
level 63
Mar 25, 2018
Sounds good, but it is more likely due to immigration. Neither Norway nor Sweden nor Denmark are currently at replacement rate for births: Sweden is at 1.88, Norway is at 1.75, Denmark is at 1.69. These are only slightly better than Italy's rate of 1.37, and Italy is on the verge of disappearing. Replacement rate has to be higher than 2.1 births per woman. Even Iceland is only at 1.93.
+1
level 75
Apr 1, 2019
If those birth rates are accurate then it probably is immigration. Also maybe a little bit longer life spans? Though I doubt that makes a big difference and Italy has one of the high life expectancies in the world.
+1
level 51
Apr 1, 2019
Somehow I forgot Ukraine