Top 10 Swing States in U.S. Elections

Would've never thought of Missouri.

We're a flyover state. Nobody ever thinks of us.

Which explains why I hate the whole "red state/blue state" thing. These days it seems that liberals think everyone in a red state is ignorant and conservatives think everyone in a blue state is elitist. Historically I would guess that most states have changed back and forth over the years. Changes in population or social or economic issues which tip the balance don't mean that every resident of the state suddenly changes affiliation, and some are always independent. My son once volunteered for a presidential candidate in our state and was dismayed to learn that the national party wouldn't give any funds to the state organization because they had determined in their formula our state wasn't needed to win. That is why who wins the popular vote doesn't matter. If the system was different, money would be distributed differently, and the results would probably be about the same. It's called politics.

Though there are many factors and some anomalous years, if you look at the data (go on, take a look, it's interesting and revealing) it becomes clear that since the American Civil War the major defining factor in US presidential elections has been race. I'm loathe to admit this as I tend to disagree with people who see racism as the reason for everything, but, just look at the map. Democrats were the party of racists (in the south, and to a lesser extent in the mid-west) from 1860 until 1964. 100 years of Democrats owning the "solid south." Then what happened? The Civil Rights Act of 1964, introduced by a Democratic Congressman, signed into law by a Democratic president, and *immediately* the country flips completely, defying 100 years of precedent. The racist states turned from blue to red and vice versa. The only years that are different since then are 1968 when the Democrats splintered

... and formed the Dixiecrat party, and in 1976 when the Democrats ran a southern peanut farmer from Georgia. (he would go on to carry Georgia in 1980, as well) but the overall pattern in every other year for the past 150 years can be explained by this one thing. The racist states try to dress up their racism in different ways and call it different things. Things like "states rights" and "smaller government" which was their way of saying keep the federal government weak so that state and local governments are free to oppress their minority populations; and of course gun rights became a big thing because southern militias needed to be armed to keep said minorities in line. This one issue has shaped American political discourse so pervasively and for so long that most people don't even realize it, they think that their party is in favor of small government because they believe in fiscal responsibility or something like that.

and of course not all Republican voters are racist and many now actually do believe in these things racism aside but that is where our current two-party national divide originally came from and how many ideas that we now take for granted as conservative or liberal principles came to take shape.

That's an exorbitant amount of time. I'm pretty sure a quick typist could type all 50 states twice in that amount of time. That's what I did to get New Hampshire. Started at Alabama and worked my way down alphabetically.

How about all quizzes being so short that only the top 2% typists can actually finish it on time, that way those of us in pursuit of knowledge can relax and take up gardening instead?

I finished it with 14 seconds remaining, and my average typing speed is 38 wpm. Probably 96% of people could easily finish this quiz.

This group is changing steadily. Missouri is pretty safe for the GOP - even in Trump's worst polling periods it never looked like going blue. Virginia is increasingly behaving as a blue state, not a swing state. Pennsylvania, on the other hand, could become more of a swing state and North Carolina looks to be following Virginia's trajectory. Meanwhile I think Iowa could follow Missouri and move towards becoming a more GOP-leaning state.

The reverse quizzes, for Republican and Democratic states, are here.

Where is the source Trump is up in Iowa, Ohio and is closer in New Hampshire in Real Clear Politics

Arizona, Michigan, and New Hampshire not officially counted as of 4:15 today

Not that it matters

This is the fifth election in which the Democrat won the popular vote but a different candidate won the presidency. (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and now 2016. 1824 Republicans weren't around but the other elections the Republican won)

Before 1964 the Democratic and Republican parties were very different, with completely different platforms and constituencies. I'd be careful drawing any broad conclusions going back to the 1800s. But the fact that this has happened twice in the last two decades is troubling.

No we'd get the citizens of the USA picking the winner. There's no reason why voters in WY should havemore say than voters in CA, and if we used a popular vote states wouldn't decide anything. The 10 million people of GA would count exactly the same as the 10 million people of OK+CT+IA. Also this would eliminate the way the minority in each state is subsumed by the majority, rendering their votes meaningless. That applies as much to Republicans voting in CA as it does to Democrats voting in TX. Finally, the main purpose of the EC as devised by the founding fathers was to protect against dangerous but popular demagogues (like Trump) coming to power. The founders were very wary of direct democracy for this reason. They knew such villains could appeal to the plebes before betraying them. If the EC decides to vote against Trump this year it'll have done what it was designed to do. But it probably won't, and if it doesn't, then it is useless.

Here's my two cents: the electoral college is stupid (see CGP Grey video), Trump didn't win the popular vote but won the electoral college (see different CGP Grey video) because he played his cards well (there'll probably be a CGP Grey video on that soon). He may not have won fairly, but that's not a problem with him, it's a problem with the country, and the way we elect our leaders.

Everybody has campaigned how they've campaigned because of the EC. If candidates really wanted to win the popular vote, they'd campaign in population-rich areas, not in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Maine, etc. The EC makes candidates campaign in those states.

Well you can make an argument that the states in the United States are like small countries. Similar to how the UN security council gives 1 vote per member.

Now, i'm not saying this is a strong argument, but it was an incentive for some states to join the United States following independence.

The Electoral College votes are unevenly distributed, and the bigger states like California and Texas don't get the representation they deserve, while tiny states like Wyoming, Vermont, and Alaska all get 3 votes. It also gives the majorities in each state an advantage, so in safely Democratic states like California and solidly Republican ones like Alabama the minor party really has no shot at winning, rendering their votes essentially useless for the purpose of electing the candidate they voted for. It's only in the swing states that people's votes really count since that is what can tip the election in favor of either candidate. This can barely be called democratic, as in a democracy all votes count equally. I find this system absurd, and don't see any reason as to why the US doesn't go by popular vote, since that is after all what determines what the majority of people want. Also, in the Electoral College, a candidate can technically win with only 21.91% of the vote.

Also, the Electoral College doesn't actually benefit the small states, since presidential candidates don't really care about them unless it's an insanely close election. This means that the EC doesn't really benefit anyone and should be abolished altogether. Popular vote benefits everyone equally, no matter if you live in a big city of in the countryside.

I personally think that not having the electoral college will make elections more interesting. Rather than both candidates visiting the same swing states each time, we would see republicans campaigning in California, or Dems campaigning in Rural Mississippi.

With that said though, the margin of victory the Dems get in CA and NY simply outweighs everything else. So, it would not be the best way.

You know that whether or not you like California's political atmosphere, it's still a state, right. So as far as I'm aware, you can't just remove the votes of any state. If not, time to remove the votes the Republicans get in Texas, Georgia and North Carolina.

It seems like the U.S. is, on the whole, trending more liberally in the swing states. Not a bad thing, but it's interesting.

As a Danish person, I don't know anything about the swing states. Got 7/10 by typing random states though.

Virginia? Really? That’s surprising as NoVa is all democrat and that’s where most of VA lives

The state is solid red, though, outside of NoVA, Richmond, and some parts of the Norfolk metro area. As those areas have become more densely populated it turned more and more purple, and is now starting to become blue. But before 2008 Virginia had voted for the Republican candidate for president in every single election going back to 1952 except once ('64).

*angrily typing about politics*

*getting reported multiple times for making political comments on political quizzes*

*Polite comments still sometimes get deleted anyway

Going by the most recent polling data, the 10 most competitive states this year look to be (in descending order):

Ohio

North Carolina

Georgia

Florida

Iowa

Texas

Arkansas

New Hampshire

Arizona

and Pennsylvania

I'm not really sure I believe that Arkansas poll. If that was a fluke, then Nevada would slide in to the 10th most competitive spot. Would be pretty crazy if Trump lost in Arkansas. But the fact that Texas and Georgia are competitive this year is also bad news for him. Those have traditionally been Republican strongholds and also where they get a substantial chunk of their electoral college votes.

None of the other states are surprising. My home state of Virginia is leaning more blue all the time. Happy to see that sanity is prevailing there.

The least competitive states appear to be West Virginia and Massachusetts.

Georgia was won by Biden this year. the Demographics are changing.

Minnesota is up for grabs this election!

if winning=losing by 7.2 points then of course it is!

I'd argue Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire are no longer swing states. I think Texas has become a swing state, though.

Not so fast on Florida, but other than that, you are right

Saying Florida isn't a swing state anymore is a rushed conclusion in my opinion, I'd wait for the 2022 midterms and 2024 election to see. For all we know, it could have been a fluke because of the much-more-Republican-than-usual Cuban vote in Miami-Dade. Other than that, I'd agree.

Surprised to see Michigan is missing from this list.

Michigan is pretty much a democratic state, along with the great lakes region.

The only time it voted republican in the last 4 election was in 2016.

This election added Arizona and Georgia here, right?

It did, yes.

So glad Colorado finally got moved off the list...