U.S. Elections in 2022, Part I - Pennsylvania Senate

The 2022 elections in the United States will have an arguably large number of competitive elections. To help you understand what is going on, I will be breaking down some of the more notable races for this year.

Before I get into this, I would like to emphasize that I am attempting to remain non-partisan in this breakdown. Although I am a strong supporter of a certain party, I will not be discussing that here.

The 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania is an "open seat" election, which means that there is no current officeholder, or "incumbent", running for the office. This fact, and the competitiveness of Pennsylvania, means that this seat, which is currently held by the Republicans, is arguably the most contested and important race of this cycle.

The current officeholder is Pat Toomey, who is generally considered to be a "moderate" Republican, mainly due to his tendency to sometimes vote with the Democrats. This is most notable in his vote to convict Donald Trump of his incitement of insurrection in 2021.

While there are seven candidates currently running in the Democratic primary, I will only be discussing in minor detail four of them. (This is mainly due to the fact that only four candidates poll above 5 percent, but also because it is far easier to put 4 images on a page versus 7.)

Montgomery County Commission chair Val Arkoosh is admittedly the least known of the "major" candidates, as she is the only "major candidate" to not have a Wikipedia page of their own (her name links to the page about the Senate election). However, she is the only major female Democrat in the race.

Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is also in the running, and is the current leader in the polls. He is notable for having ran for this Senate seat in 2016 (he lost in the primary), and his tenure as the Mayor of Braddock.

State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta is second in the polls. He strides the line between moderate and progressive, and is notable for being the first openly LGBTQ+ person of color elected to the state legislature of Pennsylvania.

Finally, we have U.S. Representative Conor Lamb. Lamb is notable for his moderate politics, as well as having won a special election in a Republican-leaning seat in a 2018 special election. He currently places third in the polls.

Businessman Jeff Bartos polls second to last, and is the least notable of the candidates. I can't really say much about him.

Television host Mehmet Oz is arguably the opposite, leading the polls overall. While he is notable for his celebrity, he has also come unto fire for espousing pseudoscientific views on his television show.

Former Ambassador Carla Sands is the only Republican candidate to have held any sort of official position, having been an Ambassador to Denmark under the Trump presidency.

Business Everett Stern is more known for his whisteblowing rather than his politics, as he exposed the HSBC money laundering scandal.

There are four big groups that predict the results of elections: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and RCP (RealClearPolitics). Their predictions are as follows:

The Cook Political Report: Tossup

Inside Elections: Tilt Republican

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Tossup

RCP: Tossup

I hope that y'all enjoyed this breakdown. It took a decent amount of effort. Let me know what election you would like me to cover next in the comments below. I am focusing on mainly statewide elections, as an FYI.