Ukraine and Russia Part Two: The Invasion

Probably something on everyone's minds when they read the news in the morning (or in my case, 10:30 pm the former night). Nearly every single news channel and media outlet has the dramatic words "Russia Invades Ukraine," or some variation of it in their headlines. This crisis has just taken a significant turn for the worse. Let's see what led up to this, what will happen as a consequence, and just what in the world is going on right now.

So, unless you've been completely cut off from all forms of the Internet or media in general for the past few months, you've definitely heard of the Russo-Ukrainian Crisis, or perhaps some less-formal wording. Either way, the military buildup by Russia on its Ukrainian border has been well-documented (perhaps over-documented) by news outlets. Leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with Putin and tried to negotiate an end to this event. Obviously, that didn't really work.

On 21/22 February, Putin announced his formal recognition of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, a huge step away from diplomacy, and towards war. This gave him the (false) pretext to officially send large numbers of Russian soldiers and equipment to the rebellious states in Ukraine. The importance of this lies in the fact that Donetsk and Luhansk only control about a third of their respective claimed territories, meaning that Russia can use erroneous reasonings such as "peacekeeping" to help the self-proclaimed republics to conquer land from Ukraine.

Following this announcement, Russia was immediately condemned internationally, with Western countries especially publishing harsh rebukes of the recognition. The EU, UK, and US placed sanctions on multiple Russian banks and high-level officials, hoping this would deter Putin from escalating the conflict. The most significant of these reactions was Germany's suspension of approving Nord Stream 2, a gas pipeline between Russia and Central Europe that would provide Europe with significantly greater access to energy, but would also increase their reliance on Russia. The US has been a known opponent to the approval of the project, and President Biden applauded German leadership for taking initiative to put the pipeline on hold.

Speaking of which, the United States has been regularly releasing intelligence their agencies collected on Russian motives and plans leading up to their eventual invasion of Ukraine. They were hoping that describing Putin's plans of action before he executed them would make him pause, or at least lead him to take a less-aggressive path. The US also wanted to disprove any false claims Russia might use as reasons to attack Ukraine preemptively, so as to make sure that any attempt at invasion would be seen as completely unprompted and unreasonable. Surprisingly, after the intelligence catastrophe that was Afghanistan, the US government actually got this right.

Subsequently, after Russia's recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk, the UN was called into an emergency meeting by Ukraine to discuss the crisis. World leader after world leader condemned the actions Russia was taking, before an unscheduled TV appearance by Putin was abruptly announced. In his speech, Putin described that Russia was going to execute a "special military operation" in Ukraine to "demilitarize" the country. He specified that his objective wasn't to occupy the country, but rather to replace the Kievan "junta" with a Russian-friendly leadership that is free of American influence. Essentially to topple the current government. Moments later, news anchors began reporting en masse of explosions in cities like Kiev and Kharkiv, marking the beginning of the largest land war in Europe since World War II.

Missiles and artillery struck dozens of Ukrainian cities and towns along the border, as well as other targets in the country, like Kiev. Earlier in the day, commercial airlines were grounded and airspace over Ukraine was completely void of aircraft. This changed as Russian helicopters and fighter jets soared over the country, bombing and destroying airports and military bases. Russian troops advanced from Belarus, where Putin had previously claimed military exercises were occurring, as well as from the Crimea and the separatist Donbas region. There were also amphibious landings by Russian troops in the port city of Odessa, where at least 18 Ukrainian military officials were killed. Later, it was reported that the initial Russian landings were pushed back and Odessa remained in Ukrainian hands.

Kharkiv and Kiev were the main targets for rocket strikes, as Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, sits very near the Russian border. Kiev is also dangerously close to the northern border with Belarus, where Russian forces are advancing. Chernobyl became a major battleground between Russian and Ukrainian forces, as it lies just north of Kiev. The site was infamously where the Chernobyl Nuclear Meltdown occurred in 1986, releasing huge amounts of deadly radiation into the air as far away as Norway, and poisoning the area around it so that no humans can live there. Concrete shells were constructed over the reactor to prevent radiation from escaping further, but should those shells be cracked, Belarus, Ukraine, and the rest of Europe could be exposed to radiation as a result of the catastrophe from decades ago. This seemed like a possibility, as explosions and gunfighting continued around the area. It was later reported that Russia managed to take ahold of the region, but the status of Chernobyl has yet to be determined. Rumors are circulating that radiation has spiked in the area, but these have been unconfirmed.

Even as this dark day unfolded, Ukraine worked hard to defend itself. The government expressed that they would provide arms to anyone able to and willing to fight. Ukrainian officials have reported that they have shot down at least two Russian helicopters and seven fighter planes. At least 40 Ukrainian soldiers were reported to have been killed, dying to protect the independence of their country, along with dozens of innocent civilians who had nothing to do with the conflict. Perhaps most importantly, President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has been previously questioned as to his leadership ability in such times of crisis, as proven to be extremely cool-headed during this time, choosing to stay in Kiev, along with the rest of the government, rather than trying to escape to another country. Even if it is an act, it shows that Zelensky isn't willing to abandon his nation, and continues to give Ukrainians reason to fight. In the early hours of 25 February, he televised himself to the nation, speaking of Russian assassins infiltrating Kiev, with himself as the prime target. Despite this, he and his family chose to remain in Ukraine, instead of fleeing abroad.

As of right now, there are several conflicting maps showing the extent of which Russia has managed to invade. It is known that they've at least captured Chernobyl, as well as a considerable amount of land directly north of Crimea. Parts of Luhansk and areas nearby Kharkiv have also likely been taken over, although the last reported news of the line of contact in the Donbas have stated that, for the most part, Russia has not yet broken the lines.

Russia was instantly condemned internationally as a result of their illegal incursion into Ukraine. The UK, US, Canada, and EU have reprimanded these attacks as unjustified and uncalled for, and have promised sanctions. Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, has pushed Putin to bring his troops back "in the name of humanity." The G7 has also condemned the invasion, and NATO has been rocked by the invasion, with Poland, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania triggering Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, calling Russia's aggression "a threat to the entire world and all NATO countries."

Sanctions by the West include freezing assets for dozens more Russian individuals, exclusions of Russian banks from Western financial institutions, and blocks on technological exports. In addition, President Biden announced the relocation of thousands of American troops to NATO's eastern flank, as well as the deployment of 7,000 more troops to Europe within the coming days. He has stated that America will not fight in Ukraine, but if Russia steps so much as an inch into NATO territory, it will face the "full force" of the American military.

Markets also took a major hit as a result. Russia's stocks crashed, losing a third of their value in the immediate aftermath of the invasion, and the ruble collapsed to a record low. European and American stocks also took a dive, with the former closing on the lower end, but the latter recovering and closing on the upside. Oil prices soared, with Brent Crude Oil reaching above $105 for the first time since 2014, given Russia is a major oil and natural gas supplier, and sanctions will likely prevent much of that from being exported to Western countries.

In addition, there have been major protests to the war. In Western cities like New York, London, and Berlin, as well as in front of Russian embassies, residents and Ukrainian immigrants have taken to the streets, waving Ukrainian flags and chanting for the war to stop. There has also been intense pushback within Russia itself, with nearly 1,400 protesters across Russia having been arrested, and numerous celebrities and athletes having used social media to express their discontent with their country's invasion. This is unusual, given that it is very common for high-profile individuals to support Russia's actions, along with the fact that the punishment for not doing so is often very severe. Even then, a survey found that only about 45% of Russians approve of the war, with many expressing that Ukraine is not a threat, that Putin has taken a step too far, and that the incursion will only ultimately harm Russia.

The largest part, of course, was the impact on the livelihood of the average Ukrainian. It's been estimated now at least 100,000 Ukrainians have been uprooted and are fleeing to the west as Russia continues to advance. Traffic jams and long lines at ATMs and banks are commonplace, along with air raid sirens and the use of underground subway systems and basements as protection against bombs, much like during the Blitz of World War II. People have begun streaming into neighboring NATO countries like Hungary and Poland, with NATO soldiers being called to assist in the evacuation.

This is... terrifying. Such a war involving at least one major power in Europe hasn't been seen since World War II, nearly 80 years ago. It is also extremely uncalled for. It's akin to the Iraq War in that there is no good reason for the conflict. In fact, like was mentioned, there isn't that much support for it in Russia. This means that it was probably Vladimir Putin who chose to invade Ukraine to try and create a legacy for himself, and to begin the steps towards rebuilding the Soviet Union. The problem is that the USSR is from an era long gone. The age of empires. Russia's invasion would be like if the United Kingdom tried to invade India to regain the British Raj. The time has passed. But Putin can't accept that. So he has chosen to start a huge geopolitical crisis that will cause much bloodshed and probably billions of dollars of reparations.

I'd like to address something though: the threat of this turning into a global war. Will the invasion of Ukraine spark World War III?

Probably not.

Ukraine is not part of NATO. If it had been, Russia wouldn't have invaded, as they would have to face the combined might of the US, Canada, and nearly all of Europe. In fact, one of the reasons why they are invading is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Given Ukraine is not a member state, no nation in NATO is obligated to defend it, and will likely not. Putin has claimed that any country that attempts to intervene in the conflict will face "consequences you have never encountered in your history." What is this action? It could be mass cyberattacks, or the deployment of its hypersonic missiles. Or maybe nukes. One way or another, this is only further entrenching the mindset of leaving Ukraine alone.

The only ways I see this escalating into a greater conflict is if there is a miscommunication along the NATO borders with Russia or if Russia begins to lose. Let me explain the second one. There is absolutely no way Putin will allow Ukraine to win this war. If the tides start to turn and Russian forces begin to be pushed back, he won't just walk away. His reputation at home would plummet. Instead, it is possible that he will employ weapons of mass destruction against Ukraine, which would be catastrophic and will almost certainly elict massive international pushback and intervention. It is also possible that he could accuse the West of intervening in the conflict and launch a surprise invasion, which would only hurt Russia in the long run.

I honestly don't see why China would involve itself in the conflict. Yes, all it has said on the matter is a call for peace, the claim that the attack isn't an invasion, and an accusation of the US for hyping up the threat of Russia, but there is no reason, strategic or otherwise, for Xi Jinping to currently join Russia and possibly have inflict Western sanctions on his own country. The Ukraine conflict has already benefitted China, since it has forced America to turn its focus from the Asia-Pacific to Europe. It is also trying to assess how the US reacts to the war, so as to prepare for what might happen when they inevitably invade Taiwan. Even if Russia somehow gets itself in a global war against NATO, China would remain out of it unless there was a direct threat or benefit for helping Russia, as the costs of World War III would simply be too much. Even if Russia invaded the rest of Europe, the US will likely be forced to keep a relatively large presence in the Pacific region to try and deter China from attempting to cross the Taiwan Strait while much of its Atlantic forces deploy to the European continent.

We also have to remember what will happen after the conflict ends. This is obviously the worst security crisis in Europe in many decades and will probably cause massive changes in the society of Europe. NATO members will definitely increase their own military spending to prepare for a possible future Russian invasion, while Ukraine, should it survive, will strive more than ever to become a part of the alliance. After this is all over, Europeans will have to live with the lingering dread of invasion from the east, a possibility no one really has thought of in over 30 years.

Alright... well, that's that. My part two to the Ukrainian-Russian Crisis, which I prayed I wouldn't have to write. Today was a very, very dark day, the likes of which the current generation hoped we would never see. My prayers and best wishes go out to all the innocent people in Ukraine and Russia who have fallen victim to the war. Hopefully this crisis will end soon.