The Quizmaster's 2023 Predictions

negative ∞ - this gives a lot of incentives for hackers to break into JetPunk

Idk which but one is gonna age well and another definitely won’t

Negative Infinity? Seems excesive.

The fourth item of this list at 85% is sad but honestly probably even higher. The mayoral election is coming up in February. It will be interesting to see how the data turns out in the next few decades, if it keeps losing population or whether it rebounds a bit due to exodus from the west/midwest. Again, this is all very speculative, and we have issues of our own.

14% chance that Joe Biden dies, resigns, or is removed from office before 2024 seems pretty high to me. I found an actuarial life table that says an 80-year-old man has a 5.6% chance of dying in one year, and Biden seems healthy for an 80-year-old.

But overall nice predictions!

Might be being dense here but shouldn't the years be different in 85% "Chicago July 2022 estimated population lower than 2021"? Wouldn't it already be known if that was true due to both dates being in the past?

I can already hear TNT crying about Cyprus’s in the comments...

Wouldn’t Chicago fact be July 2023? And I’d put WHO’s fact at 35% or 30%. Idk but I think this Pandemic won’t end until 2024 or 2025 ;-;

20%, TikTok banned in the US? Hell yeah I’d love to see that. Anyway, you have a thing for pumpkins.

What if someone buys Jetpunk and adds Cyprus to the Countries of Europe quiz?

Always roasting Cyprus

I think Cyprus should be added to the Antarctica countries quiz.

Initially I was a bit dubious of the claim on the front page about the "Earth-shattering" nature of these predictions. However, once I reviewed them, I can now clearly see that the predictions at 7% and 0.5% do certainly qualify as earth-shattering!

I would move extraterrestrial intelligent life to Negative Infinite, and replace its current spot with unintelligent life.

75% I reach lvl 75.

the other 25% I am struck by a lighting, meteorite, space debree. Mars fever, a vampire, or a piranha.

Congratulations for another successful year accomplished and many good vibes to the QM and the rest of all.

I love the thumbnail being the octopus that predicted every Germany’s game correctly at 2010 World Cup

Nice! I appreciate these. More people should make specific quantifiable predictions to refine their beliefs.

Without looking at your percentages (I hid them), I gave these a shot too.

Disclaimer: I have no experience, this is my first time forecasting anything. I didn't spend a lot of time thinking about or researching these (many are just "gut feelings"), and I didn't use forecasting sites. Question marks mean I'm not informed enough to make a prediction. Every fifth statement is labelled.

>99 population, 91, 94, 95, 93, ? quizzes, 90, 88, 85, 80, ? Chicago, 82, 82, 85, ?, 70 Jetpunk, 70, 75, ?, ?, 40 film, ?, ?, 55 (before today's news), ?, ? Brady, 30, ?, 25, ?, 60 Swift, ?, 35, ?, 45, 15 capital, ?, ?, 25, 25, 20 Hamilton, 30, ?, 15, 20, 4 US war, 12, 3, 6, 7, 2 GPS, 5, 2, ?, 0.1, 0.3 Carrigton, under 0.1 (~0.02?), under 0.1 (~0.003?)

What % do you predict that you'll recognise Crimea as part of Ukraine again

please

One of my quizzes gets featured

0.00000001%

Just to check if I understand these correctly - the scenarios with a percent chance above 50 are those QM thinks will transpire over the course of 2023, and the ones with a percent chance below 50 are those that QM thinks will not?

Shouldn't it be "Russia captures KYiv, during THE WAR?

caps are the changes btw

Last year when Cyprus was at 0% it was funny already, but this year the negative infinity received the most of my laughter.

I think that 'China invades Taiwan mainland' has a higher chance of occuring than 8%.

Only a negative infinity chance of Cyprus being Europe? I thought the chances would be lower..lol

I did expect some sort of ' Belgium removed from COTW' or something.

So you think there is only a 25% chance, that Kazakhstan will rename its capital to Nur-Sultan again?

Any predictions on whether Jacinda Ardern is still New Zealand PM at year's end? 2023's an election year down here.

How likely do you think Jimmy Carter is still alive at the end of 2023?

Not even two weeks after this blog post and we already have a new oldest person in the world. I had just heard the news of Sister Andre’s passing earlier today, a month shy of age 119.

Annnnnnnnnd as of March 3rd, there is a chance of the environment collapsing due to the Willow Project that hopefully gets cancelled :(

I don't know why, but I'm looking forward to 2024 predictions already :)

So, the economics question: The economy is cyclical and will go through peaks and troughs, as you’ll undoubtedly know. Peak unemployment usually comes when there has been a period of economic growth, but the peak often precedes and signifies an imminent downturn in growth. When there are too few people unemployed, businesses find it harder to find staff and begin to offer higher wages to compete for them, which in turn contributes to inflation. Then central banks start hiking interest rates in order to halt inflation, which dampens economic activity as companies cut jobs and reduce investment, while consumers reign in their spending on non-essential purchases. Economists believe that aggressive rate hikes either cause recessions or make them worse, as evidence by the fact that, since 1950 the US Federal Reserve and other central banks have failed to slow inflation without causing a recession.

I absolutely love the fact that the item on this list that's ranked as the second most likely is going to be proven wrong. Both 'Barbie' and 'Super Mario Bros' have grossed a lot, and neither fits the bill as "existing movie franchise."

I see you weren't thinking about Barbie lol. Plus is the richest man in the world now too lol.