What's the Most Unlikely Thing That Can Happen to You? (RLL #1)

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What is the Most Unlikely Thing That Can Happen to You?

This post is based on a YouTube video by RealLifeLore, which I found to be very interesting; please check that out after reading this.


You've likely experienced things that we, as people, consider exceptionally impossible to happen in a typical person's life. But have you ever pondered what the most unlikely thing that can happen to you is?

Let's begin off with smaller probabilities and work our way up. In case you were to step into a room with 50 individuals, there's a 1 in 12 chance that one of those people will have the same birthday as you. That might appear quite improbable to begin with, but there are more things we'll be clarifying in this blog post that are interminably more unlikely.

In case you apply to Harvard, you merely have a 1 in 20 chance of getting accepted. But that's still more likely than taking a pair of dice and rolling snake eyes, which encompasses a 1 in 36 chance. To get more improbable, you've got a 1 in 100 chance of getting a brain tumor in your life, and a 1 in 102 chance of getting murdered in a car accident if you live in the United States. Medically speaking, you had a 1 in 500 chance of being born with 11 fingers or toes.

But all of that's still more likely than a high-school hockey player going pro, which features a 1 in 598 chance. In truth, it's exceptionally impossible that a high-school competitor will ever make it to the pros, with baseball being a 1 in 659 chance, football at 1 in 4,233, soccer at 1 in 5,768, and most challenging of all, basketball at 1 in 11,771. Correctly guessing a 4-digit pin code on the first attempt encompasses a 1 in 10,000 chance. The chances of you rolling a perfect 300-point game in bowling are 1 in 11,500. You have got a 1 in 12,000 chance of getting struck by lightning on the off chance that you live within the United States.

If your golf skills are at an average level, then you have a 1 in 12,500 chance of getting a hole-in-one at the golf course on your first try. There's a 1 in 18,000 chance of you getting murdered if you live in the United States and a 1 in 54,000 chance of dying from a bee sting. MBAs have a 1 in 135,000 chance of being the CEO of a Fortune 500 company. Engineers have a 1 in 164,000 chance while lawyers only have a 1 in 386,000 chance.

You have a 1 in 340,000 chance of getting killed in a fireworks accident. The odds of getting dealt a Royal Flush in Poker are only 1 in 649,740.

The odds of getting killed by a terrorist in the USA are just 1 in 4,000,000 and getting eaten by a shark at 1 in 8,000,000. If you were born in the U.S. you have a surprisingly high 1 in 10,000,000 chance of becoming president, while you have a 1 in 11,000,000 chance of dying in a plane crash. Winning the Jackpot of the PowerBall lottery has just a 1 in 175,000,000 chance. Playing Cards Image

Now let's jump to some extremely unlikely events that can occur. The odds of you getting a perfect NCAA bracket in basketball is just 1 in 128 billion. Getting killed by a falling satellite has the odds of just 1 in 21 trillion. If you take a 100-question multiple-choice quiz by purely guessing on every single question, then there's only a 1 in 750 trillion chance of you getting all the questions correct.

The most unlikely thing that can ever happen to you may seem pretty difficult to wrap your head around - shuffling a deck of 52 cards and getting them in the same order as it was previously. The odds of this ever happening are at just 1 in 80 unvigintillion, or 1 in 8.0658*1067, a number which contains 67 zeroes. There are more ways to arrange a deck of cards than there are atoms in the Milky Way galaxy. This means that every time you shuffle a deck of cards, the same order of cards had probably never been seen in human history and may never be seen again.

To give you a sense of how unlikely that really is, set a timer for that many seconds (just seconds - not minutes, hours, days, or years). Stand on the equator, and take a step forward every 1 billion years. Once you've circled the entire Earth once, take a drop of water out of the Pacific Ocean every 1 billion years. Once it's empty, lay a row of papers from the Earth to the Sun. Afterward, shuffle a deck of cards and deal yourself with 5 cards every 1 billion years. Each time the deck of cards is a royal flush (1 in 649,740 chance), buy yourself a lottery ticket. Each time it hits the jackpot (a 1 in 175,000,000 chance), throw a grain of sand into the Grand Canyon. Once the Grand Canyon is full, repeat this process again but instead, remove 1 ounce of rock from Mount Everest every 1 billion years. Once Mount Everest ceases to exist, replicate this process 256 times, and your time will run out.

Down below is a table that recaps all the probabilities that were covered in this post.

Thing Probability
Someone will having the
same birthday as you
if you step into a room
with 50 people in it
1 in 12
chance
Getting accepted into
Harvard
1 in 20
chance
Rolling a pair of dice
and getting snake eyes
1 in 36
chance
Getting a brain tumor
in your lifetime
1 in 100
chance
Getting killed in an
automobile accident
if you live in the USA
1 in 102
chance
Being born with eleven
fingers or toes
1 in 500
chance
High-school hockey
player making it
to the pros
1 in 598
chance
High-school baseball
player making it
to the pros
1 in 659
chance
High-school football
player making it to
the pros
1 in 4,233
chance
High-school soccer
player making it to
the pros
1 in 5,768
chance
High-school basketball
player making it to the
pros
1 in 11,771
chance
Correctly guessing
a four-digit PIN code
1 in 10,000
chance
Winning a perfect
300-point game in
bowling
1 in 11,500
chance
Getting a hole-in-one
in golf (if your golf skills
are average)
1 in 12,500
chance
Getting murdered if you
live in the USA
1 in 18,000
chance
Dying from a bee
sting
1 in 54,000
chance
Being the CEO of a
Fortune 500 Company
if you are an MBA
1 in 135,000
chance
Being the CEO of a
Fortune 500 company
if you are an engineer
1 in 164,000
chance
Being the CEO of a
Fortune 500 company
if you are a lawyer
1 in 386,000
chance
Getting killed in a
fireworks accident
1 in 340,000
chance
Getting dealt a royal
flush in Poker
1 in 649,740
chance
Getting killed by a
terrorist attack in the
USA
1 in 4,000,000
chance
Getting eaten by a
shark
1 in 8,000,000
chance
Becoming the president
of the United States (if
you are a US citizen)
1 in 10,000,000
chance
Getting killed in a plane
crash
1 in 11,000,000
chance
Winning the Jackpot
of the PowerBall Lottery
1 in 175,000,000
chance
Getting a perfect NCAA
bracket
1 in 128 billion
chance
Getting killed by a
falling satellite
1 in 21 trillion
chance
Taking a 100-question
multiple choice quiz
correctly guessing every
question
1 in 750 trillion
chance
Shuffling a deck of cards
and getting the same exact
order
1 in 80 unvigintillion
chance
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Level 56
Apr 3, 2020
Did you asked RLL personally? I am his big fan. Love his content.
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Level 57
Apr 6, 2020
For those who like probability comparisons, I recommend the youtuber Reigarw Comparisons.
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Level 55
Apr 17, 2021
This probability was included in this video by Reigarw Comparisons
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Level 74
Apr 11, 2020
The first time I played poker, my classmates and I decided before dealing a round, that it was gonna be the last and we went all in, I was dealt a royal flush.
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Level 60
Apr 16, 2020
That's a really interesting blogpost. Why I didn't read it before... I'm such a baka.

Btw, how are these chances determined...the possibility of these happenings?

And should I feel lucky that I do got all correct in a 100 Multiple Choice Question test in my school once because I was prepared.

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Level 68
May 7, 2020
Nice! I really like RLL's content. It's so fascinating. Anyways nice blog entry Dodoma.
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Level 43
Oct 22, 2020
For me, the penultimate, depends the difficulty of the test. But congrats! I love this blog!
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Level 43
Oct 22, 2020
And the difficult of the PIN. :)
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Level 55
Oct 22, 2020
It doesn't. It means that if you take a test and choose completely random answers, there is a 1/750 trillion chance you'll pass it.
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Level 43
Oct 22, 2020
Oh! Now I understand this. Thanks!
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Level 75
May 21, 2021
It's like your odds of a perfect score taking a test in Tok Pisin
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Level 63
Feb 7, 2021
I love RLL and it's great to see more fan content.
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Level 68
Apr 6, 2021
Over 1 year later and this blog is still one of the better ones on JetPunk! And with The Blog Update I can finally give it a well deserved "like".

Thanks Pandora for writing this, look forward to many more :)

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Level 55
Apr 6, 2021
Thanks! :)
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Level 75
May 21, 2021
Are you sure that it's less likely to die from a plane crash than become president? If that were the case, then only five U.S. citizens would be killed in a plane crash every twenty years. And that's just if no president won reelection.
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Level 55
May 21, 2021
I'm not exactly sure. I'm 99% sure the probability of dying in a plane crash is around 1 in 10 million (most sources say 11 million), but becoming president does seem much more unlikely. I'll have to do some more research on that
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Level 60
Jun 30, 2021
Nice