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Top 10 Most Populous U.S. States in 2070
What will be the most populous states in the year 2070?
Based on a simplistic model by the Quizmaster
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cpgatbyu
+5
level 76
Apr 27, 2019
Polynomial extrapolation is generally considered to be bad, isn't it? And is there any intrinsic reason to believe that population growth would be polynomial rather than exponential or some sort of modification thereof?
Quizmaster
+1
level ∞
Apr 28, 2019
Agree, but I was pleasantly surprised by how reasonable the estimates seem. A straight exponential would seem to be worse. Maybe you can suggest a more sophisticated function, and I could do a curve fit on it?
Quizmaster
+1
level ∞
Apr 28, 2019
Also, why is polynomial regression considered bad? We are only using a 2 degree polynomial so there's not a high risk of overfitting.
TWM03
+1
level 56
Jun 13, 2019
Because increase in population tends to be proportional to the population, unless some other important factors change over time.
Jerry928
+4
level 71
Apr 28, 2019
The 50-years-hence estimates come with a massive margin of error and I suspect that the 2070 figures will end up to be very different from the numbers calculated here. But I might be wrong, and there is one good way to check this out (apart from waiting 50 years). I'd suggest to Dan that he takes the population data from 1920, 1930, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1969, then uses his polynomial tool to "predict" the population fifty years later, in 2019. If that exercise produces a result close to the real present-day population, then he might be onto something!
Quizmaster
+6
level ∞
Apr 28, 2019
As a wise man once said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future". No doubt these predictions will be wildly inaccurate! Maybe the next great entrepreneur will be born in Oregon or New Hampshire and totally reshape migration patterns. Maybe the U.S. will cut off immigration (or increase it). Maybe someone will discover a cure for aging. Who knows?
tshalla
+5
level 67
Apr 28, 2019
Good suggestion. Anyway, real world stuff determines migratory patterns. (Jim Crow, the rise and decline of the Fordist mode of production, and the increasing availability of home air conditioning would be three pretty disparate 20th Century U.S. examples.) That climate change may influence migration in the next fifty years is a pretty good guess, but generally, hindsight works better.
mrnafe
+3
level 74
Apr 28, 2019
Ah it's always nice to speculate how these things might progress
OfficerDibble
+11
level 70
Apr 28, 2019
That model is indeed simplistic - it hasn't even produced some of the most obvious ones like Puerto Rico and Great Britain.
NoahFulbrook
+1
level 35
Jun 13, 2019
what?
blay
+1
level 45
Apr 28, 2019
So the largest 10 states account for the majority of the population. Urbanisation is crazy.
hunjtg
+4
level 65
Apr 29, 2019
I just did what Jerry928 suggested, without knowing his suggestion. Except I used data 1910,1920,1930,1940,1950 and 1960 predicting 2019.
I tried using linear quadratic and cubic estimation. Non of them is much better than the others, however the cubic the worst.
Here the result of the quadratic (and the reality):
1 California 57.0 ( 1 39.8 )
2 New York 26.1 ( 4 19.9 )
3 Texas 22.9 ( 2 28.7 )
4 Florida 22.5 ( 3 21.3 )
5 Ohio 19.0 ( 7 11.7 )
6 Illinois 17.4 ( 6 12.8 )
7 Michigan 16.1 ( 10 10.0 )
8 New Jersey 14.0 ( 11 9.0 )
9 Pennsylvania 13.3 ( 5 12.8 )
10 Virginia 10.4 ( 12 8.5 )
13 Georgia 8.9 ( 8 10.5 )
15 North Carolina 7.7 ( 9 10.4 )
I think it is quite bad. 8 among the first ten was already there in 1970, however there were no chance to predict the other two.
senex
+2
level 56
Apr 29, 2019
Florida will be underwater, Arizona will be out of water, Texas will have poisoned itself and the US itself may well not exist in its current form (if an epidemic or nuclear disaster hasn’t significantly altered things first). We are hastening our own demise.
markthoma
+1
level 62
May 7, 2019
Spoken like a true senex. :-)
Quizmaster
+5
level ∞
May 18, 2019
@senex, can I get a spot in your bunker when the collapse happens? Can't promise I'll have food, gold, or ammo but I do know a lot of interesting facts! (Just use the contact us form to send me your physical location, thanks).
ferdy86
+1
level 66
Jun 13, 2019
And California is already screwed.
Highlander29
+2
level 68
Jun 13, 2019
And what's the probability we'll run out of tin-foil for hats before Florida goes underwater. Florida is quite hilly in some areas (up to 500ft) so I don't see how "Florida" goes underwater even with your dire predictions - or don't you read scientific journals that don't agree with your philosophy?
shortyoh
+2
level 70
Jun 13, 2019
The highest point in Florida is Britton Hill, at 345 feet... well short of 500 ft, but well above where sea level rise is projected.
Of course, most of the population of Florida lives along the coast, so high ground elsewhere isn't much of a comfort to them.
NINJAQKk
+2
level 39
Jun 13, 2019
Watch out Cali, Texas is coming for you :)
FlabberBapper
+1
level 56
Jun 13, 2019
In about 50 years, but yeah.
CreativeSWAT
+3
level 50
Jun 13, 2019
Read the states as Cities and so only got New York 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
rawe
+2
level 49
Jun 13, 2019
Tried South Carolina with 5 seconds remaining, the answer was North Carolina lol
shortyoh
+1
level 70
Jun 13, 2019
Just wait until people realize there's no water in Arizona....
Or that Florida might be too expensive to live in, etc...
JATODP
+4
level 56
Jun 13, 2019
Interesting quiz, but surprised that Illinois didn’t make the list.
WanHuangdi
+1
level 62
Jun 14, 2019
This method is quite unkind to the Industrial Midwest, with Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois all falling off the list.
Grapefruit74
+2
level 16
Jun 15, 2019
Texas will have higher population then California???
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