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Top 10 Most Populous U.S. States in 2070

What will be the most populous states in the year 2070?
Based on a simplistic model by the Quizmaster
Quiz by Quizmaster
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Featured Quiz
Last updated: April 27, 2019
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First submittedApril 27, 2019
Times taken15,921
Rating4.08
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Population
State
62.1 mil
Texas
54.8 mil
California
40.4 mil
Florida
22.5 mil
New York
22.0 mil
Georgia
Population
State
21.5 mil
North Carolina
16.9 mil
Arizona
14.8 mil
Pennsylvania
14.2 mil
Washington
13.8 mil
Virginia
cpgatbyu
+7
Level 81
Apr 27, 2019
Polynomial extrapolation is generally considered to be bad, isn't it? And is there any intrinsic reason to believe that population growth would be polynomial rather than exponential or some sort of modification thereof?
Quizmaster
+1
Level ∞
Apr 28, 2019
Agree, but I was pleasantly surprised by how reasonable the estimates seem. A straight exponential would seem to be worse. Maybe you can suggest a more sophisticated function, and I could do a curve fit on it?
Quizmaster
+1
Level ∞
Apr 28, 2019
Also, why is polynomial regression considered bad? We are only using a 2 degree polynomial so there's not a high risk of overfitting.
TWM03
+1
Level 63
Jun 13, 2019
Because increase in population tends to be proportional to the population, unless some other important factors change over time.
Jerry928
+5
Level 74
Apr 28, 2019
The 50-years-hence estimates come with a massive margin of error and I suspect that the 2070 figures will end up to be very different from the numbers calculated here. But I might be wrong, and there is one good way to check this out (apart from waiting 50 years). I'd suggest to Dan that he takes the population data from 1920, 1930, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1969, then uses his polynomial tool to "predict" the population fifty years later, in 2019. If that exercise produces a result close to the real present-day population, then he might be onto something!
Quizmaster
+10
Level ∞
Apr 28, 2019
As a wise man once said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future". No doubt these predictions will be wildly inaccurate! Maybe the next great entrepreneur will be born in Oregon or New Hampshire and totally reshape migration patterns. Maybe the U.S. will cut off immigration (or increase it). Maybe someone will discover a cure for aging. Who knows?
tshalla
+5
Level 71
Apr 28, 2019
Good suggestion. Anyway, real world stuff determines migratory patterns. (Jim Crow, the rise and decline of the Fordist mode of production, and the increasing availability of home air conditioning would be three pretty disparate 20th Century U.S. examples.) That climate change may influence migration in the next fifty years is a pretty good guess, but generally, hindsight works better.
Demogaffe
+1
Level 35
Jan 24, 2021
Estimates as recently as the turn of the century have turned out to be way off in many states...they had Washington DC down in the 400K range by the early 2020s, and instead its nearly 700K.

They also didn't anticipate the North Dakota oil boom...

mrnafe
+3
Level 78
Apr 28, 2019
Ah it's always nice to speculate how these things might progress
OfficerDibble
+17
Level 75
Apr 28, 2019
That model is indeed simplistic - it hasn't even produced some of the most obvious ones like Puerto Rico and Great Britain.
NoahFulbrook
+3
Level 37
Jun 13, 2019
what?
blay
+2
Level 49
Apr 28, 2019
So the largest 10 states account for the majority of the population. Urbanisation is crazy.
hunjtg
+4
Level 68
Apr 29, 2019
I just did what Jerry928 suggested, without knowing his suggestion. Except I used data 1910,1920,1930,1940,1950 and 1960 predicting 2019.

I tried using linear quadratic and cubic estimation. Non of them is much better than the others, however the cubic the worst.

Here the result of the quadratic (and the reality):

1 California 57.0 ( 1 39.8 )

2 New York 26.1 ( 4 19.9 )

3 Texas 22.9 ( 2 28.7 )

4 Florida 22.5 ( 3 21.3 )

5 Ohio 19.0 ( 7 11.7 )

6 Illinois 17.4 ( 6 12.8 )

7 Michigan 16.1 ( 10 10.0 )

8 New Jersey 14.0 ( 11 9.0 )

9 Pennsylvania 13.3 ( 5 12.8 )

10 Virginia 10.4 ( 12 8.5 )

13 Georgia 8.9 ( 8 10.5 )

15 North Carolina 7.7 ( 9 10.4 )

I think it is quite bad. 8 among the first ten was already there in 1970, however there were no chance to predict the other two.

NINJAQKk
+2
Level 62
Jun 13, 2019
Watch out Cali, Texas is coming for you :)
FlabberBapper
+1
Level 65
Jun 13, 2019
In about 50 years, but yeah.
SWATkun
+4
Level 60
Jun 13, 2019
Read the states as Cities and so only got New York 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
rawe
+2
Level 65
Jun 13, 2019
Tried South Carolina with 5 seconds remaining, the answer was North Carolina lol
shortyoh
+1
Level 75
Jun 13, 2019
Just wait until people realize there's no water in Arizona....

Or that Florida might be too expensive to live in, etc...

Grapefruit74
+2
Level 31
Jun 15, 2019
Texas will have higher population then California???
undeadwarrior
+1
Level 56
Jun 19, 2019
If California hasn't annexed itself and declared itself its own country by then...
NKH
+1
Level 59
Mar 5, 2021
I think it is more likely to be Texas that has declared itself independent...
RKS
+1
Level 67
Jan 17, 2020
Hey man, just wanted to let you know this quiz got me exactly to 10.000 points! Happy Friday :D
marez
+1
Level 58
Apr 2, 2020
Coronavirus will reduce the numbers.. especially Florida.
bmartin04
+1
Level 40
Dec 2, 2020
Well, you were sure right!
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