NFL Playoffs Explained + Predictions

Here are the current standings:

Okay, I probably shouldn't have spent an hour on the table, but hopefully, it shows everything. The team(s) in green have locked up a spot in the NFL Playoffs. The teams in yellow have a chance at making the playoffs; if a certain team or number of teams win or lose, a team in yellow could come into the playoffs. The teams in red are out of the playoffs; no matter who loses and who wins, they wouldn't make the playoffs.

This year, 7 teams are making the playoffs per conference. The top team in each division of the conference make the playoffs, as well as the next 3 best teams. Let's imagine if the season were to end right now, before week 15 (using the standings shown previously). In the AFC (right side), the Chiefs, Patriots, Titans, and Bengals would make the playoffs. The Chiefs have the #1 seed (which is the best) with a 10-4 record and the best record in the AFC West. The Patriots would get the #2 seed (second best) with a 9-4 record and the best record in the AFC East. The Titans will get the #3 seed, also with a 9-4 record, and the best record in the AFC South. And the Bengals would have the #4 seed, with a 8-6 seed and the best record in the AFC North. The Colts get the #5 seed, the Chargers get the #6 seed, and the Bills get the #7, all with a 8-6 record. The Ravens, Steelers, Raiders, Dolphins, Browns, and Broncos all are still in the hunt, meaning that they still have a chance at the playoffs.

Now, you must be wondering why the Patriots have the #2 seed, while the Titans have the #3 seed, even though they both have 9 wins and 4 losses, or why the Bengals, Colts, Chargers, Bills, and Ravens all have a 8-6 seed, but have different positions.. Well, the NFL has a whole list of scenarios when two teams have the same record in the playoffs. Here they are:

Okay, this is so complicated! Let me break it down with the Patriots/Titans:

The Patriots and Titans played each other in Week 12, where the Patriots won. This is why the Patriots have the higher seed. But this could also apply to any two teams with the same record.

Now, let's say that the Patriots and Titans didn't actually play each other. Currently, the Titans have a 4-1 divisional record, and the patriots have a 3-1 divisional record, so that would give the Titans the #2 and the Patriots the #3. However, the Patriots have two more divisional games and the Titans only one, so at the end of the season, there would be a possibility that both would get a 5-1 divisional record. This means we must look at the common games.

If I checked correctly, both the Titans and Patriots faced the Colts, Jets, Bills, and Saints. The Patriots lost to the Colts and Saints, and beat the Jets and Colts, and the Titans beat the Colts, Bills, and Saints, and lost to the Jets. This would mean that the Titans would get the #2 seed and the Patriots would get the #3 seed. But let's say that the Patriots and Titans had the same common record. This means we would need to look at the teams' conference record.

In an NFL season, each team plays 12 games with teams in their same conference. Currently, the Patriots have a 7-2 conference record, and the Titans have a 6-4 conference record. The Patriots have 3 conference games left, and the Titans 2. So, in this scenario, if the Patriots got more conference wins than the Titans, the Patriots would get the #2 and Titans #3, and vice versa. But, what if both teams tie with their conference record? This would mean that we would have to see the strength of victory between teams.

So this would mean finding the record of the teams that the Patriots and Titans beat. Here's another example. In 2016, the Patriots had 14 wins, with wins against teams with a combined record of  111 wins, 142 losses, and 3 ties.

Now that we are getting into the deep end of tiebreakers, these tied scenarios are so rare that they almost definitely haven't happened, so I'll just go through these very quickly so we can get to the picks.

Strength of schedule - same thing as Strength of Victory, but with all teams they faced.

Best Ranking of Points scored and allowed in conference - whichever team has more points scored and allowed in conference games.

Best Ranking of Points scored and allowed - same thing, but with all teams

Net Points in common games - how many more or less points are in common games

Net Points in all games - how many more or less points in all games

Net Touchdowns in all games - how many more or less touchdowns in all games

Coin Toss - a 50/50 coin toss.

Okay, I think we are in a part of the season that a win could give you the playoff berth, or a loss could kick you out of the playoffs. So, here are my personal picks.

Okay, so what are the most important games of the week?

Here are what I think are the games that can seal/ruin a team's playoff chances.

1. Bills @ Patriots

I think that this game could decide the AFC east. If the Patriots win, then they will have the AFC East clinched with a 10-5 record. Plus, the Bills right now have the #7 seed, but you can bet that if they lose, they will be knocked out of the playoffs. But if the Bills win, they will have a very good chance at the playoffs, and maybe the AFC East.

2. Ravens @ Bengals

This game could also decide another division, the AFC north. The Bengals are at home, and have beaten the Ravens before. I think that whoever wins this game will get a playoff berth no matter what happens, while the loser will go to the very bottom.

3. Colts @ Cardinals

The Colts are coming off a two game win streak, beating both the Patriots last week. The Cardinals, however, are coming off losses to both the Rams and Lions, loosing two opportunities the clinch the playoffs. I think that although the Cardinals will win, it will be by a narrow margin. But let's take a look at the consequences. If the Cardinals win, they will be in prime position to win their division and make the playoffs. A loss and a Rams win would lead to the Cardinals being pushed down to the #5 seed. If the Colts win, they will still have a good shot at the playoffs, but if they lose, that is basically it for them. They will have a chance, but a very small one.

4. 49ers @ Titans

This is another very important game for the NFC west and AFC south. With a win and a Colts loss, the Titans will clinch the playoffs. A loss would be bad, probably pushing them down, but they will probably still win the title. For the 49ers, a loss would still give probably give them a playoff berth, but then the Cardinals and Rams will have much better chances.

So, this weekend has a lot of football games that you might want to keep an eye out on. Happy Holidays and I will see you soon!