The True Goals of the Russo-Ukrainian War

The Russo-Ukrainian conflict started in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, and continues through today, boosted by an escalation in 2022 when Russia invaded mainland Ukraine. The western media depicts it as a war to completely take over Ukraine, in which is completely false in ways I will explain, along with what I think the true reason of the war was.

The reason for the invasion was not to control all of Ukraine, but to annex the territory that was ethnically a majority Russian, and connect these territories (Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk). Due to the majority of the population being of Russian ethnicity, Russia could use this as a reason for other nations to recognize these annexations, unlike if Russia annexed a different territory, along with the relatively few losses it would take compared to a full takeover. Not only would land be claimed, but due to NATO not allowing countries at war to join, it ment Ukraine could not join NATO if a war were to occur.

The first part of the plan, was to gain the lands that required little to no losses, AKA Crimea. Crimea was annexed quickly, with no resistance, and soon, the Donbas would have its own conflict as a pretext to what was to come. Russian media depicted the war as a genocide Ukraine was committing against the people in the area, giving way for one of the reasons to invade. Fast foward to 2022, and we see 150,000 Russian troops on the border of Ukraine, ready to invade. This is the first flag as to why their goal wasn't to take over all of Ukraine: The numbers. No matter how strong your army is, you cannot completely take over a nation like Ukraine with only 150,000 troops. Many people believe that the reason Russia hasn't taken over Ukraine is the inferiority of its army, but in reality, its because of the amount of troops Russia put in (People think Russia is using their entire army, ex. a comment on a quiz saying "despite Putin's best efforts" etc.). Now, when Russia invaded, they occupied the Donbas, and also had troops near major cities (Kiev, Kharkiv). The reach for these cities, was not actually to take them over, but as a distraction. Because where will a nation put most of its troops to defend if it's being invaded? The capital. Hence why Russia sent a force to the capital, not to take over, but to distract the majority of the forces of Ukraine while it takes over its true goal, of the Donbas, and a land bridge connecting the states to Crimea. When Russia occupied their land goal, they withdrew troops from the Kiev front, and slowly got into defensive positions, eventually withdrawing from around Kharkiv. Once Russia fortified its positions, it added an additional 350,000 troops to defend the territory. Its current goal is to defend until Ukraine tires out, with small offenses every so often to add miniscule chunks to the annexation. In the video below, it shows how the land change has moved exponentially, and has been in a stalemate for the past few months, compared to before, in which there was clear gains and losses.

So, what can we expect in the future? Well considering Russia has all the lands it needs, the only thing left is to wait for Ukraine to wear out, which could take a while with all of the western aid. It is uncertain whether these lands will be recognized, unless a treaty is signed with Ukraine to stop the war and recognize these lands. Now that Russia is on the defensive, it is very likely it will hold out, and has all the resources it needs to defend from a country like Ukraine, in the territory it occupies.

I predict the western media will make Russia seem like the loser, for not obtaining their "original" goals, while Russian media will make it out as a unification of race, and a worthwhile war. Either way, Russia will not collapse, and WWIII won't happen.

Now for my opinion on the punishments on Russia? They shouldn't happen. The sanctions are unneeded, and are hurting the citizens of Russia more than the Government. I talked with someone who wants to leave Russia, but can't because of the Sanctions imposed, limiting the ways they can make money. Kicking Russia from the UN Human Rights Council is just hypocritical, because every member has done just as bad, if not worse when it comes to human rights. Overall, theres nothing we can do without hurting more people, as Russia has already invaded.

Ukraine, NATO, and the Past: One of the said reasons for invaded Ukraine was to prevent them from joining NATO. While this does seem like a bad reason, we must also remmeber the times the US invaded harmless neighbors because they were communist (Grenada, Cuba to an extent). NATO being able to move weapons through Ukraine freely poses just as much of a danger to Russia, as Grenada posed to the US. If this was the sole reason for the invasion of Ukraine, then the war likely wouldn't have happened.