Hint
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Answer
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Inductive reasoning: ___-___ reasoning, from specific observations to broader ____, basis of ___ investigations
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bottom, up, generalizations, scientific
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Deductive reasoning: ___-___ reassoning, from the more general to the more ___
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top, down, specific
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Conclusions we reach with inductive reasoning are ___ - but not ___ - true, a number fo factors can contribute to the strength of an inductive argument: ___ of observations, ___ of observations, ___ of the evidence
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probably, definitely, representation, number, quality
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Heuristics: people use ___ experience to guide ___ behavior, often use shortcuts to help them reach conclusions ___
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past, present, rapidly
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Availabiltiy heuristic: events that are more ___ remembered are judged as being more ___ than events that are less easily ___, can mislead us when less ___ occurring events stand out in our memory
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easily, probable, remembered, frequently
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Classic Study: asked participants what they think is more prevalent in English, words that begin with the letter r or words in which the r is the third letter, 70% of participants responded with the former even though false, but those words were easier to ___, creating the false belief that these words are more ___
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remember, common
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Illusory correlation: strong ___ between two events appears to exist but ___
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correlation, doesn't
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Representativeness heuristic: the probability that A is a member of a class B can be determined by how well the properties of A ___ the properties we usually associate with class B
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resemble
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Base rate: relative ___ of different classes in the population
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proportions
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Confirmation bias: ___ looking for information that ___ to a hypothesis and ___ information that argues agaisnt it
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selectively, conforms, ignoring
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Myside bias: tendency for people to evaluate evidence and test their hypothesis in a way that is ___ towards their own opinions and attitudes
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biased
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Validity: syllogism is valid when its ___ follows logically from its two ___, validity is not ___
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conclusion, premises, truth
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Mental model: specific ___ represented in a person's mind that can be used to help determine the ___ of syllogisms in deductive reasoning
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situations, validity
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Hint
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Answer
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Conditional syllogisms have two premises and a conclusion like categorical syllogisms but the first premise has the form ___ ... ___
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if, then
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Syllogism 1 (modus ponenes): A --> B, A, therefore ___, is valid
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B
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Syllogism 2 (modus tollens): A ---> B, NOT B, therefore ___ ___, is valid
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NOT, A
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Syllogism 3: A --> B, B, therefore A, ___ valid
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not
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Syllogism 4: A --> B, NOT A, therefoer NOT B, ___ valid
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not
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Utility theory: people are basically ___; if people have all of the relevant infroamtion, they will make a decision that results in the maximum expected ___ (outcomes that achieve a person's goals), problem; you are more likely to be killed in a car accident than in a plane crash but after 9/11 a decrease in air travel and an increase in driving occured
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rational, utility
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People inaccurately predict their emotions, think negative outcomes will have ___ negative influence than they actually have / positive outcomes
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greater
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Incidental emotions are ___ ___ by having to make a decision, person's general disposition is something that happened ___ in the day or the general ___
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not caused, earlier, environment
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Sadder-but-wiser hypothesis: sadness has been found to be associated with careful, deliberate ___ making and a reduction of ___ arising from heuristics
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decision, biases
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Incidental emotions affect decision: depending on which movie clip the participants saw (sad vs. disgust vs. neutral) they rated differently the price for which they would be willing to sell a set of highlighter pens (disgust and sadness were willing to sell for ___ than the neutral group)
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less
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Decisions can depend on the ___ within which they are made
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context
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Framing effect: decisions are influenced by how the ___ are ___
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choices, presented
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