My Experiences with Card Counting

Why Would Someone Seriously Devote Time and Effort to Card Counting?

When I was a sophomore in university, I lived a modest life.  I lived in a dilapidated 40-year old trailer with three other guys, and I even shared a room with one of my friends from high school.  We set out pots to capture the drips from the leaking roof every snowmelt, and I can tell you what it feels like to be awoken by a cold drip of water smacking my forehead from a brownish, discoloration on the ceiling. In short it was mildly annoying in a bland kind of way. Something slowly driving into my skull.  Exactly like university-level chemistry! The water drops, at least, only cost $35 per tub of roofing tar (which never worked anyway). University cost over ten thousand dollars per year.  This is all to say that I suffered from dingy living conditions and boredom. And of course, a lack of money.

I had worked a minimum wage job for the family business throughout my university career, I did gig jobs like DJing, and I also tutored high school students sporadically as students answered my ads. My friends and I went to music trivia pub nights to win free food twice a week to stretch our budgets. One other thing we did for fun was gambling... sad to say, we probably went to the casino about once per month and played games like blackjack. We generally only played with about $20, and sometimes we did well. One night, my friend got very lucky and ended up winning several hundred dollars at black jack.  I won about $40.  I really wanted to be better at black jack than my friends. I took out the library's only book on card counting and then researched on the Internet.  It seemed seductively easy, so I decided that I would learn to card count. It was probably the same reason I decided to learn to juggle when I was 12.  Just that stupid determination to do something interesting. Maybe it would help pay for my university degree.  Maybe it would lead to my ruination, as many a poor boy.  But at the very least, it'd hopefully be interesting!

A Basic Explanation of Black Jack, followed by Basic Card Counting

Black Jack is not a particularly complicated game. You play against the dealer, and the other players at the table don't affect the mathematical probability of the game. You try to get the closest to 21, but if you go over, you automatically lose. If you get an ace and a ten, it's a black jack, and you win 1.5 times your bet automatically (unless the dealer also pulls a black jack).  The dealer normally has about a 2.5% advantage over the player.  This means that you can expect to lose $2.50 for every $100 you bet.  Of course, the standard deviation is high, so you can win a lot or lose a lot.  But in the long run, the house can expect to profit $2.50 for every $100 you bet.  Card counting turns that around and gives you about the same advantage.

In black jack, the player gets two cards dealt and the dealer gets one (and sometimes a hole card, but not where I played). A player has a disadvantage when it comes to going over 21.  Players go first, and if they "bust", they automatically lose, regardless of whether the dealer busts.  To make the game a bit fairer, players get to "double down", "split", and win 1.5 times payment on a blackjack. The big one here is a double down.  You get to double your bet and take one more card. If you have a 5 and 6, you have a value of 11.  You're trying to get to 21 and theoretically 3/11 cards in the deck are 10s.  Even a 9 or 8 isn't too bad.  So about 50% of the time a player will get a good hand if they double down on 11.  But their hand is terrible if they get something like a 5 or a 6.  Players don't like having 5's or 6's in the deck at all... they help the dealer on average far more than they help players.

Now, what is card counting? There are a lot of complicated methods for advanced card counting that gives you more of an advantage over the casino, but I went with the simple method. The basic principle is that high cards that are still in the deck are good for the player.  For every ten, jack, queen, king, or ace I saw, I had to subtract one from a running tally in my head.  If I saw a King, Eight, in my head I started repeating "Em-1", for minus 1, over and over. The "count" became negative because a king was gone.  The eight was neutral, and I didn't count it at all.  If the dealer had a jack, I "minused" another 1 and kept mentally repeating "Em-2" over and over.  The more negative the count got, the worse the hands would be for players.  I wouldn't expect to make black jacks as often or be successful with my double downs. I would bet the lowest amount possible because the casino had a bigger advantage.

The advantage in card counting comes when you don't see a lot of face cards come out.  Let's say the dealer has just shuffled and deals me a 5 and a 6, and the dealer is showing a 5.  For every card from 2-6 (remember from last paragraph that those are disadvantageous for the player) that is out of the deck, I added one to the running tally in my head.  So in the case of me having a 5 and 6 and the dealer showing a 5, I'd put the tally in my head to +3.  I would confidently double down, and if a Jack came out, the count would go down to +2.  Over time, I was able to look at hands and other players' hands and tally their value in my head instantly (J, 2, 3, A, 4 is +1 to the count).

When do you have an advantage?  What does the count have to be? It's based on a term called the True Count.  This is the last layer of complexity here, I promise.  It just means that you have to divide your count by how many decks are left in the shoe (see the picture of a shoe below).  If you're playing with six decks (as most casinos do in my area), at the beginning of the game you'd need a +6 count to have a true count of +1.  As you keep playing, though, the number of decks remaining is going to decrease.  If I looked at the shoe and it looked like there were about 2 decks left and the count were +6, then the true count was +3.

Whenever the true count is +1, the dealer and the player are on fairly equal ground and neither has an advantage.  If the true count gets better... +2, +3, et cetera, then the player has a bigger and bigger advantage. Once the true count got to +2 or better, I increased by bet.  At +1 or worse, I bet $5 minimum.  That increased to $10 at +2. Then up to $20 at +3, $40 at +4, $60 at +5, and $100 per hand at +6 or better.

On a theoretical level, I would make $15 on every bet when the true count was at +6.  But if I lost... if I made a mistake... I could very quickly lose hundreds if not thousands of dollars.

I tried card counting the first time when my friend group decided to make a trip to the casino when I felt adequately prepared. I only played black jack for about an hour that night.  I barely got a chance to raise my bet because the count never went up all that much.  The thing about card counting, though, is that it takes a lot of patience and large betting when the count is in the player's favour.  I bet $5 on almost every hand for about forty minutes and had lost about forty dollars. Finally, a slew of low cards came out on one hand... about 12 low cards and 6 high cards, for a swing of +6 when the count was already +4.  The deck only had about two decks left, so the true count was a mammoth +5.  That meant I should bump my bet from $10 to $60 dollars.  For a single hand.

I had been nervous the rest of the night, but this was a LOT of money now.  The dealer dealt me a king... dealt himself a king... and dealt me a queen.  I had 20.  My money was very safe at this point.  It would probably be a push.  Better yet, the other players at the table ended up getting more low cards than high cards, so the count stayed fairly good.  Unfortunately, the dealer also pulled 20 so we tied.  Fortunately, I didn't lose, so I didn't lose $60! But on the next hand... I got a "soft-15" when the dealer showed a 5.  I was supposed to double down... I had to double down...  I would double my bet, but I'd only get one card. If you don't know, a "soft" hand is one that has an ace.  Aces can count as 1 or 11, whichever is beneficial. If you get a face card when you have soft 15, you end up with just 15. 15 is not a good hand.  At this point, I know that there are a lot of face cards in the deck, all of which would give me a sad, horrible 15.  In fact, I know that there are 9 more face cards in the deck than there are low cards.  To get a good hand, I need a low card.  Why double down then?  Because the dealer is likely to go over 21 when they show a 5.  Dealers have to hit (take cards) until they have 17 or better, or until they go over 21 and bust.

I double downed, put another $60 dollars on the hand, and hoped for a good card. The dealer plopped down a seven onto my hand, putting me at a 12.  A 12 can only win if the dealer busts.  It was fairly likely that the dealer would bust, but I had $120 on the line.  That's more than I was paid for a full day of work.  I was mortified.  The double down escalated the stakes so much!  The other players played their hands... half of them were in the same boat as me.  They had their $5 and $50 bets on the line, but with hands of only 14 or 15.  We needed the dealer to bust.  The dealer squared up to start dealing herself cards.  Her first card was a jack.  The dealer, always on our side, pleaded for the shoe to put out a queen.  She plopped down an 8.  That was enough!  I had just made $120 on one hand of black jack, and decided to cash out for the night.  $80 of pure profit.  It was beautiful.  My friends and I celebrated by buying disgusting value menu items from McDonald's for dinner.

I tend to go overboard with my interests.  This was true for juggling... this was true for long-distance running... this would be true for card counting.  I had six decks at home that I shuffled with and practiced just running cards out in simulated games and keeping track of the count.  I made myself flash cards to memorize when I should hit or not based on what the count is.  If the true count is negative, I should hit a 12 when the dealer is showing a 4.  I memorized dozens and dozens of rules for when I should hit, stand, double down, or split.  I dedicated myself to learning every rule, to following the rules very strictly.  I went to the casino once or twice a week by myself.  I tried to go on random nights of the week when it wouldn't be too busy.  More players meant it'd be more cards to keep track of, and more players using up the good cards when the count was good.  Within a month, I had profits of $850.  Over the next month, with the advantage of more time off from reading break, I had pushed my profits to $2460.  From 16 trips to the casino, I was sitting on almost $2500 of profit. Interestingly, the casino didn't have any issues with card counters and there were no rules against them.  Perhaps my 17th trip explained why the casino permitted wannabe card counters.

On my 17th trip, which still remember extremely well, things took a turn for the worse.  When the true count is over +6, the player has a massive advantage.  There are a lot of face cards and not a lot of low cards.  No other players were at the table with me, so the good cards were all mine... and the dealer's.  The count had ballooned all the way to +23 with 2.5 decks left.  That is almost a +10 for the true count.  I had a major advantage.  I put down $100 and got two face cards.  The dealer got a face card.  Then pulled an ace for black jack.  The dealer and I were equally likely to get that black jack... but the dealer pulled it.

The count was down to +19, but the math still supported a huge bet.  I took $100 from my wallet (when I card counted I carried enough to have around 10 maximum bets, so about $1000) and got a $100 chip.  I was dealt 8, 8. Oh no... THAT hand. I was in a good position; when you have a pair, you have the option to match your bet and "split" your hand into two hands.  In this case, my 8,8 would become two new hands, each with an 8. The dealer had a 7, so I definitely wanted to split.  I really had to split, but it meant I had to put down another $100 on this one hand of black jack.  On my first eight, the dealer put down a king, and I was happy to have 18 against the dealer's 7.  Then on my second 8 the dealer put down another 8.  I had 8,8 again.  Again, I really have to split. If I don't split, I'd be looking at 16.  16 doesn't win unless the dealer busts, which is not likely. Hitting a 16 would almost certainly lose.  I had to split. I now had $300 on the table for this one hand. The dealer put a 9 on that second 8, giving me a paltry 17.  I probably would not win with it, but hopefully I would not lose.  On the third 8, the dealer put down another 8. I split again.  $400 now.

I was sick to my stomach.  It did not help when the dealer put a 2 onto my 8.  I had 10.  You have to double down when you have a 10 against a 7, especially when the count is so high.  I put down another $100 and doubled down, hoping desperately for a 10.  I got a low card... I didn't even make 17.  That money was almost as good as gone. Finally, on the last 8, the dealer put down a ten.  I had $500 riding on one hand.  If the dealer pulled a face card or a ten, I would break even.  If the dealer busted, I'd make $500.  But... if the dealer made a good hand... I would lose it all.

The dealer pulled her first card.  The dealer put down a 2, and somberly called "9". One thing I remember from that night is that casino dealers get really bummed out when they watch you lose a lot of money. She was not happy at all to be showing 9 against me.  I remember feeling hot and was probably as red as a radish when she neatly put down a queen to beat all of my hands.  I had just lost $500.  That was more than triple my monthly rent.  That was as much as I made for a week of real employment.

There is an acronym for gambling. HALT. It tells you that you should stop gambling if you ever feel hungry, angry, lonely, or tired.  I ignored that acronym.  I was feeling pretty angry.  Plus the count was still good.  I would win my money back.  The night ended with me losing $1000.

And I lost $1000 the next night.

And the night after that.  I was now down money overall. I had lost money as a card counter. I had lost $3000 in about two weeks counting cards. The thing that really stung is that I was positive that I was doing the counting correctly.  When I thought the count was good, the dealer just ended up getting those good face cards and black jacks. There were just several big hands that I lost it all on a couple strokes of bad luck...

Gambling is generally an awful thing for the human psyche.  We get a rush of endorphins when we win, and it makes us want to gamble more.  When we lose, it makes us feel stupid and bad, and we want to keep playing until we win so that we stop feeling stupid and bad.  Most people can enjoy gambling without getting hurt, and it's just harmless fun.  But as someone who went to the casino regularly for about two years, card counting, I noticed that there were some people who were there as much as me.  People I'd regularly see fairly frequently.  But then there were people who were there literally every time I went.  They would bet a tiny amount, and they'd spend all day at the casino.  Maybe this person was rich and retired and it was harmless... but I have a feeling that wasn't the case.  I also saw people come in about once every other week, right around payday, who would blow through a thousand dollars, and leave angrily.  Sometimes they'd win, but most of the time they did not. But not me.  I was not addicted to gambling.  Definitely not...

Or at least I don't think I was.  I continued to track how much I'd made or lost at the casino every time I went, and I refused to give up before I could make it profitable.  Over two years... two years of going to the casino every other week... I really pushed myself to turn a profit.  I got up from the table and "went to the bathroom" if the count got really bad.  I got better and better at remembering tiny little strategy shifts when the count got really good.  I did make money. I put in a lot of effort and managed to eke out a profit at card counting over the long run.  Here is a graph of how I did.

Of the 63 sessions that I remembered to keep accurate-ish account on, I had made about $4000.  That bit of extra money certainly helped out a little bit over two years. I had proven to myself that I could use my brain to count how many high cards were in a black jack shoe and eke out a profit.  However, over the same period, here is an estimate of my grades in university.

For the record, I was able to work as a tutor at this time for about $30 per hour.  It was regular work, and I really enjoyed working with students to help them get ready for exams or to help them learn new skills.  I even tutored a university student to get an "A" in Organic Chemistry even though I only got a "B-"!  Here is a final graph, though, that explains why this is relevant.

I had spent 200 hours at the casino card counting to get just under $4000.  That is less than $20 per hour.  That is less than my regular jobs paid.  I ran the risk of losing hundreds of dollars on a bad night to squeak out almost $20 per hour. That is almost not so bad; $20 per hour is a respectable wage! But when I take into account the food I paid for at the casino, the driving time, the time spent practicing card counting and memorizing the rules, it is blatantly obvious that it was not worth the time at all.  And sometimes I'd stay at the casino for six hours until I had made a profit. Even when I had school the next day, sometimes I'd be there until 1 AM. When someone told me that I might have a gambling addiction, I looked over my spreadsheet.  I felt like I had been in control the whole time.  But was I?  I went back after losing $1000 and kept doing it  until I had made a profit.  What if the math was wrong?  What if I wasn't good at keeping a count under high pressure situations?  Why was I choosing to go card counting instead of just working or going to bed at a reasonable time. And in terms of hours spent gambling and being a bad student, it was not worth it.

I decided that I needed to stop card counting. I went to the casino for one last hurrah.  You can see the little tick upwards there at the end of the graph, and that's how I went out.  I asked the casino to exclude me from gambling for three years so I wouldn't get tempted to go back to card counting. They said it was unusual for a player to ask for self-exclusion after cashing out with $500, but were happy to oblige the request.  I got a real job, and I don't card count or gamble at my local casino, for almost 10 years now.

Should you card count? No. Should you card count if you're really good at math and can definitely make a profit? NO! It always felt way worse for me when I lost money than when I made money.  I would have a pitted stomach for a couple days after a big loss, and a big win just didn't make it worthwhile. Plus, if you have dedication and math skills to be a card counter, you can probably get a job that pays better than card counting. Also, feeling like I mathematically deserved to win made it feel really easy to justify betting huge amount of money that I could barely afford, or made me feel like I could win it back if I just kept counting.  Which is, of course, exactly what a gambling addict thinks.  Trying to force wins instead of playing slow and steady is a major reason I probably lost so much in my first few months.  I heavily discourage anyone from seriously trying to card count, even as a hobby. Just get a job!

So here we are.  My full experience with trying out card counting.  I figure not that many people would have actually done something so silly in their early adulthood.  Hopefully this is interesting or educational for at least one person who ends up reading it.  But I wouldn't... count on it!