2024 Predictions

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2024 Predictions

Here are my predictions for the upcoming year! Are they good! What did I miss? What would you change?

Guaranteed to Happen (100-75)

99: The US election will take place

99: World Population increases

99: I make at least one more quiz

97: The EU continues to fund the Ukrainian effort in their war with Russia

95: A natural disaster will claim the lives of at least 100 people

95: Donald Trump secures the Republican nomination

95: Joe Biden secures the Democrat nomination

90: Rishi Sunak will call an early general election in 2024
90: 2024 will be even hotter than 2023

90: Xi remains as leader of China

90: Charles III remains as King

90: Modi remains as Indian Prime Minister

87: Saudi Arabia spend over $70 million on a single footballer

85: There will be a feel good story at this Summer's Olympics in Paris

85: Erling Haaland wins the Premier League Golden Boot

85: Deadpool 3 is in the top 3 grossing films of the year

82: Mark Zuckerberg remains CEO of Meta

80: Manchester City win at least one trophy

80: Elon Musk still CEO of Tesla

80: Vladimir Putin is still president of Russia

80: Either Pogacar or Vingegaard wins the Tour de France

75: Volodymyr Zelensky is still president of Ukraine

75: Britain returns the Parthenon marbles to Greece be it on a loan or permenantly

75: I reach 2.5 million takes

75: Carlos Alcaraz wins at least one major tennis championship

75: Mexico elects its first female President

75: The Doomsday Clock either remains the same or moves forward (closer to midnight)




More Likely Than Not (74-50)

74: Sam Altman still OpenAI boss

70: Ursula von der Leyen still European Commission president

70: Sadiq Khan secures a historic 3rd term as London Mayor

70: At least one major streamer increases their prices

70: Keir Starmer becomes Prime Minister of the UK

70: Euro price remains below the dollar for the entire year

68: Right wing parties dominate the EU elections

65: Manchester United lose a game by 5 or more goals

65: Kylian Mbappe plays for France in the Olympics and the Euros

65: A famous TV show is rebooted

65: Someone wins a historic Oscar

65: Erik Ten Haag is sacked as Manchester United boss

65: Oppenheimer wins Best Picture

62: Somekind of ceasefire or end to the Israel Hamas conflict

60: Rafael Nadal plays his final competitive tennis match

60: Max Verstappen wins F1 2024

60: Netflix price stock hits a new peak

55: At least one G7 country enters a recession at some point during the year

55: X (Twitter) declares bankruptcy

52: The Conservative Party changes their leader

50: I hit 3 million takes

50: A major assassination of a political leader occurs

Probably Won't Happen But Still a Chance (49-25)

45: The highest grossing film is a superhero film

42: US inflation is above 5% at any point in the year

40: AMC declares bankruptcy

40: China's economic growth is below 3%

40: The Russia/Ukraine conflict comes to an end

40: Venezuela invades Guyana

35: A new AI program takes the world by storm

35: A big Hollywood film is delayed by more than 3 months

35: The association football transfer record is broken

30: Argentina dollarises its economy

30: A country changes their official name

27: Female pop stars out-earn the men in concert tours

25: Bitcoin goes below $20,000

Very Unlikely to Happen (24-0)

24: A new country wins the Euros

20: Netherlands announces a Nexit referendum

20: Netanyahu is still Israeli Prime Minister

20: Rishi Sunak loses his seat in a general election

15: A nuclear weapon is deployed on a major city

10: The US suffers 1,000 deaths or more in a conflict

9: 9.0 or higher earthquake anywhere on Earth

7: There is a temperature of 45°C or higher somewhere in the UK

6: Hamas fully captures Israel

5: Kyiv falls to Russia

5: Someone wins 8 or more Olympics Gold Medals in Paris

4: Usain Bolt's 100m record is beaten

3: Ncuti Gatwa announces he is leaving Doctor Who

2: I reach 4 million takes

0.5: Alien or extraterrestrial life is discovered

0.1 A major asteroid kills hundreds of people

0.1: England wins the Euros (just kidding, if I was being realistic I'd put it around 20%)

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Level 43
Jan 3, 2024
I feel like you put Joe Biden's chances at winning the Democrat nomination a little too high. It's probably going to happen, but I wouldn't put it equal to Trump's chances. Good blog though!
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Level 66
Jan 3, 2024
I'd disagree. Biden has better chances than Trump at the moment, at least in the primaries. Even if not by too much.
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Level 55
Jan 4, 2024
Biden has a 60 point lead over other Democrat candidates in opinion polls hence why I put it so high. If RFK was still running as a Democrat, I'd probably put his chances marginally lower.
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Level 66
Jan 3, 2024
Cool blog.

What would you put the chances of Republicans winning the presidential election at?

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Level 55
Jan 4, 2024
Honestly I don't know. I would probably put it between 45-55% because it genuinely could go either way
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Level ∞
Jan 4, 2024
Good blog! I might add some of these to my predictions.