2024 Predictions
Last updated: Saturday January 6th, 2024
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2024 Predictions
Guaranteed to Happen (100-75)
99: World Population increases
99: I make at least one more quiz
97: The EU continues to fund the Ukrainian effort in their war with Russia95: A natural disaster will claim the lives of at least 100 people
95: Donald Trump secures the Republican nomination
95: Joe Biden secures the Democrat nomination
90: Rishi Sunak will call an early general election in 202490: 2024 will be even hotter than 2023
90: Xi remains as leader of China
90: Charles III remains as King
90: Modi remains as Indian Prime Minister87: Saudi Arabia spend over $70 million on a single footballer
85: There will be a feel good story at this Summer's Olympics in Paris85: Erling Haaland wins the Premier League Golden Boot
85: Deadpool 3 is in the top 3 grossing films of the year
82: Mark Zuckerberg remains CEO of Meta
80: Manchester City win at least one trophy80: Elon Musk still CEO of Tesla
80: Vladimir Putin is still president of Russia
80: Either Pogacar or Vingegaard wins the Tour de France
75: Volodymyr Zelensky is still president of Ukraine
75: Britain returns the Parthenon marbles to Greece be it on a loan or permenantly
75: I reach 2.5 million takes
75: Carlos Alcaraz wins at least one major tennis championship
75: Mexico elects its first female President
75: The Doomsday Clock either remains the same or moves forward (closer to midnight)
More Likely Than Not (74-50)
74: Sam Altman still OpenAI boss
70: Ursula von der Leyen still European Commission president
70: Sadiq Khan secures a historic 3rd term as London Mayor
70: At least one major streamer increases their prices
70: Keir Starmer becomes Prime Minister of the UK
70: Euro price remains below the dollar for the entire year
68: Right wing parties dominate the EU elections
65: Manchester United lose a game by 5 or more goals
65: Kylian Mbappe plays for France in the Olympics and the Euros
65: A famous TV show is rebooted
65: Someone wins a historic Oscar
65: Erik Ten Haag is sacked as Manchester United boss
65: Oppenheimer wins Best Picture
62: Somekind of ceasefire or end to the Israel Hamas conflict
60: Rafael Nadal plays his final competitive tennis match
60: Max Verstappen wins F1 2024
60: Netflix price stock hits a new peak
55: At least one G7 country enters a recession at some point during the year
55: X (Twitter) declares bankruptcy
52: The Conservative Party changes their leader
50: I hit 3 million takes
50: A major assassination of a political leader occurs
Probably Won't Happen But Still a Chance (49-25)
45: The highest grossing film is a superhero film
42: US inflation is above 5% at any point in the year
40: AMC declares bankruptcy
40: China's economic growth is below 3%
40: The Russia/Ukraine conflict comes to an end
40: Venezuela invades Guyana
35: A new AI program takes the world by storm
35: A big Hollywood film is delayed by more than 3 months
35: The association football transfer record is broken
30: Argentina dollarises its economy
30: A country changes their official name
27: Female pop stars out-earn the men in concert tours
25: Bitcoin goes below $20,000
Very Unlikely to Happen (24-0)
24: A new country wins the Euros
20: Netherlands announces a Nexit referendum
20: Netanyahu is still Israeli Prime Minister
20: Rishi Sunak loses his seat in a general election
15: A nuclear weapon is deployed on a major city
10: The US suffers 1,000 deaths or more in a conflict
9: 9.0 or higher earthquake anywhere on Earth
7: There is a temperature of 45°C or higher somewhere in the UK
6: Hamas fully captures Israel
5: Kyiv falls to Russia
5: Someone wins 8 or more Olympics Gold Medals in Paris
4: Usain Bolt's 100m record is beaten
3: Ncuti Gatwa announces he is leaving Doctor Who
2: I reach 4 million takes
0.5: Alien or extraterrestrial life is discovered
0.1 A major asteroid kills hundreds of people
0.1: England wins the Euros (just kidding, if I was being realistic I'd put it around 20%)
What would you put the chances of Republicans winning the presidential election at?