The Quizmaster's 2024 Predictions
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First published: Friday January 5th, 2024
First published: Friday January 5th, 2024
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Welcome to the third annual Official Predictions™ of the JetPunk quizmaster, in which this flawed prognosticator tries to make sense of the world by guessing what the future will hold.
Because prediction is hard and I'm still no good at it, I've included a percent chance that I think the event will happen. This will also help me to grade my predictions at the end of the year. Note: I will be the sole judge of these predictions. So, here they are, in order of likelihood, my 2024 predictions.
99 World population increases in 2024
92 Xi still leader of China
92 Joe Biden still President on election day
90 Mark Zuckerburg still CEO of Meta
90 Kim Jong-un still leader of North Korea
90 Chicago July 2023 estimated population lower than 2022
Chicago's population has fallen pretty much every year for decades, so a naive guess would be at least 95%. I'm putting this at 90% due to the chance that the Census changes its methodology or large-scale immigration causes an increase.
90 Capital added, removed, or name change on "Capitals of the World" quiz
Nusantara is scheduled to replace Jakarta as capital of Indonesia in August.
88 Charles III still king of the United Kingdom
88 I still moderate quizzes nearly every day
87 Elon Musk still CEO of Tesla
85 Sam Altman still CEO of OpenAI
85 The #1 grossing movie worldwide is part of an existing franchise
85 Ali Khameini still Supreme Leader of Iran
85 Average home price in the U.S. increases during 2024 according to Zillow
85 Andy Jassy still CEO of Amazon
84 Vladimir Putin still President of Russia
80 Lebron James active on an NBA roster
70 Volodymyr Zelensky is still president of Ukraine
2024 is an election year, but elections might be postponed because of martial law.
70 Ceasefire in the Israel/Gaza war as of December 31
70 U.S. official unemployment below 5% on December 31st
65 U.S. wins an Olympic gold in men's basketball
65 More JetPunk quizzes taken in 2024 than 2023
65 The S&P 500 finishes the year positive
65 Gold over $2000/oz at end of year
60 OpenAI releases GPT-5 or equivalent product
60 There is a new oldest living person in the world
60 Max Verstappen wins the F1 championship
60 Carlos Alcaraz wins at least one Grand Slam tennis championship
50 Elon Musk is world's richest person on December 31st
50 Ceasefire in the Ukraine/Russia war as of December 31st
45 A superhero movie is the #1 grossing movie for the entire year worldwide
40 Donald Trump is booked into jail at some point
40 Joe Biden wins at least 270 electoral votes
40 Donald Trump wins at least 270 electoral votes
If you're paying attention, this means I think there's a 20% that neither Joe Biden or Donald Trump wins 270 electoral votes. This could happen because of a third party candidate such as Kennedy, the death of either Trump or Biden, Trump or Biden losing the primary, or either candidate being kept off the ballot by states controlled by the other political party. It's a chaotic situation.
40 Price of oil (WTI) over $100/barrel on December 31
35 Euro worth less than $1 at end of year
30 Taylor Swift gets engaged
30 Venezuela invades Guyana
25 Donald Trump wins the popular vote
20 U.S. inflation (trailing 12 months) above 5%
20 Uranium price increases by at least 100%
20 U.S. bombs Yemen with at least 10 deaths
20 U.S. enters recession at some point during the year according to NBER
20 A third party candidate gets at least 10% of the popular vote in the U.S. election
15 AMC theaters declares bankruptcy
15 New record set for world's heaviest pumpkin
15 Seattle has at least one day of 100 °F or higher
12 There is a country name change on the "Countries of the World" quiz
12 U.S. suffers 1000 or more military deaths in a new conflict
10 TikTok banned in the United States
10 Russia captures Kyiv at some point during the year
10 More than 1 million JetPunk quizzes taken in a single day in 2024
10 New record for most expensive artwork ever sold
8 England wins the 2024 UEFA Euro
8 China invades Taiwan mainland
8 Country added or removed from "Countries of the World" quiz
8 U.S. bombs Iran with at least 10 deaths
7 9.0 or higher earthquake anywhere on Earth
6 OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic announce they have achieved AGI, Artificial General Intelligence
5 Someone beats Usain Bolt's world record in the 100m dash
4 At least one Global Position System satellite is destroyed
4 Nuclear detonation kills at least 1000 people
3 Someone beats Barry Bonds’s record of 73 home runs in a season
1 There is a temperature of 45 °C or higher somewhere in the UK (not counting territories)
0.5 9.0 or
higher earthquake on the Cascade fault
0.2 A geomagnetic storm greater than the Carrington Event (1859) takes place
0.2 Proof of extra-terrestrial intelligent life discovered
0.1 Asteroid impact kills more than 1000 people on Earth
negative ∞ Cyprus added to "Countries of Europe" quiz
Also, what's the highest # of daily takes JP has seen thus far?
Would also like to hear the likelihood of Vietnam joining the 100 million club given how close it is.
Please.
Please.
In December 2023 we had "one of the most powerful solar flares recorded since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began." This might indicate that the chance of another Carrington event is slightly higher than 0.2%. I hope not of course.
Source: https://www.universetoday.com/164879/we-just-had-the-strongest-solar-flare-in-the-current-solar-cycle/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miyake_event
I disagree with Elon Musk being richest person though.
Please don't ban me if gambling isn't permitted here, but I'd gentleman's wager $35 to each other's favorite charity on it.
The bet offer doesn't really make sense though. It's a 50% chance, which means I think it's just as likely as unlikely. There's nothing to bet on really.