Qy's 2nd Prediction for the 2024 Election
First published: Sunday May 28th, 2023
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Hello everyone. If you've read my old prediction for the 2024 election, you'll know it was bad. Very bad. I've decided to do a little more analysis this time, and now I've produced a result that I believe to be fairly realistic. This assumes that:
- Joe Biden easily wins the Democratic re-nomination (this is almost certainly going to happen)
- The Republican primaries are hotly contested, but somehow DeSantis emerges victorious (it's still uncertain at this point, but DeSantis is a fairly popular Republican figure, and with the party somewhat moving on from Trump, it could happen)
- Donald Trump weathers up a storm on social media, but never does go for a third-party run (or he does, but it doesn't make too big an impact)
Now then, let's get onto the map.
Joe Biden - Democratic
Running mate: Kamala Harris (almost certainly)
Home state: Delaware
Occupation: President
Popular vote: 49 - 51%
Electoral vote: ~ 300
Ron DeSantis - Republican
Running mate: Nikki Haley (?, it's still really hard to say at this point)
Home state: Florida
Occupation: Governor of Florida
Popular vote: 46 - 48%
Electoral vote: ~ 230
No matter what I think of Joe Biden's policies, I don't see him losing re-election, especially against any of the Republicans on the forefront.
Of the states, I'm most uncertain about Arizona, but I think that 2020 was just an unusually bad showing for Republicans. They did pretty well there in 2022 and even maintain a hold on the state legislature. Even so, it's still a tough call.
Hopefully, this one was better than the first prediction. If so, or if you agree / disagree with my predictions, feel free to leave your thoughts below. If you want to make your own map, you may do so here.
Thanks for reading!
The way I see it, if Republicans pick DeSantis, they're screwed. But if they pick Trump, they're doomed.
I think the situation has changed enough to need a third blog lol.
I'll hold off from the third blog until 2024. I don't want to look like a fool again, you know. 😢
Cool blog, but not up my alley. At election times I just like looking at the live map and watching all the states turn colorful, seeing who gains the next electoral college votes.
I wonder what would happen if a state went Libertarian. Would the graphics program have the correct colors?
"Doesn't matter who you vote for, Government always wins"
No idea if it was his creation or he just picked it up, but what I think he was trying to say is that all politicians are cut from the same cloth ultimately. They are all looking out for themselves and to line their own pockets.
I wouldn't trust any of them tbh.
Unfortunately, there's no great solution to be found: so maybe we should all just move to New Hampshire.
All the parties seem to do is try to discredit the opposition, rather than actually describing what they intend to do once in power.