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Qy's Prediction for the 2024 Election

Blog by FreeStater
Last updated: Sunday May 28th, 2023
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+4
THIS IS AN OLD PREDICTION. TO SEE MY MOST RECENT ONE, PLEASE SEE HERE.

Well, it's 2023, and you know what that means. Time to start speculating on next year's election. I've decided to jump aboard and try my hand at it, myself. Here's what I think will happen:

- Biden will become even more unpopular, and the Democrats will pick Newsom for their candidate.

- Similarly, the bad press surrounding Trump will lead to Republicans to pick DeSantis.

- Trump, outraged at this, will go third-party, and host a bunch of rallies to get the train moving again.

Well, that's enough introduction. Onto the map!

Gavin Newsom

Democratic

Home state: California

Former occupation: Governor of California

Electoral votes: 314

Ron DeSantis

Republican

Home state: Florida

Former occupation: Governor of Florida

Electoral votes: 121

Donald Trump

Patriot

Home state: Florida

Former occupation: President of the United States

Electoral votes: 103

As you can see, the Republican split cracked the vote and gave Democrats an easy victory.

So, what did you think? Did you agree, disagree? Leave a comment below to let me know what you thought. You can make an electoral map for yourself here.

Thanks for reading!

25 Comments
Show comments >
FreeStater
+1
Level 68
Jan 13, 2023
This is my first time trying to seriously predict an election, so it's unlikely to age well. Whatever the case, I had a lot of fun making this, and encourage you to make your own.
Nickelz
+1
Level 66
Jan 13, 2023
It sucks that I have to live in a state that voted twice for that orange sack of garbage.
FreeStater
+1
Level 68
Jan 13, 2023
Think you can handle a third?
Nickelz
+1
Level 66
Jan 13, 2023
No thanks, I will literally run away from home. HELL no.
cathlete
+1
Level 74
Jan 13, 2023
You’ve got Texas voting for Newsom? Is that because of the Trump/DeSantis split?
FreeStater
+1
Level 68
Jan 13, 2023
Ye. Even without the split, the state is still moving left-wing. Heck, in 2020, most sources listed it as either a toss-up or leaning Republican.
cathlete
+1
Level 74
Jan 13, 2023
Ah, okay. Interesting!
Aficionado
+1
Level 73
Jan 13, 2023
Why is Biden unpopular?
FreeStater
+2
Level 68
Jan 13, 2023
He just… is. Low approval ratings, bad handling of the economy, and all that stuff. He only won because people were sick of Trump.
Aficionado
+1
Level 73
Jan 13, 2023
Ah I see.. that's interesting!

We'll be having elections in India too and it seems Modi will have a landslide victory once again.

Lots of elections in 2024.. India, Indonesia, US, Mexico and Russia, though last one seems questionable.

MG17
+1
Level 43
Jan 13, 2023
Bruh I'm literally on a point where I doubt we'll have Elections in 2026 here down the way in Brazil 💀
Loyal
+1
Level 66
Jan 15, 2023
yeah Brazil is totally at risk of not having elections now that the social democrat stopped that fascist insurrection attempt.

:eyeroll:

Dimby
+1
Level 77
Jan 19, 2023
I’d be worried about my democracy if the losing party’s supporters tried to use violence and intimidation to take power.
Nickelz
+1
Level 66
Jan 13, 2023
Is Biden a bad president? Not in my opinion.

Is he a good president? Not in my opinion.

I don't think he's really doing severe damage to the country but I don't think he's very effective either. We need an effective BLUE president. Get Biden and Trump away from the Oval Office, they are much too old as it is.

FreeStater
+2
Level 68
Jan 13, 2023
If a red president'll be effective, I support them. Partisanism is no good.
Loyal
+1
Level 66
Jan 15, 2023
no thanks to "effective" bad ideas
FlabberBapper
+2
Level 74
Jan 14, 2023
Nah
FreeStater
+1
Level 68
Jan 14, 2023
😢
Nickelz
+1
Level 66
Jan 15, 2023
hi fb
TheOrca
+1
Level 50
Jan 15, 2023
Funny that the Democrats still win Georgia even with runoffs.
Loyal
+2
Level 66
Jan 15, 2023
I reckon Biden's still gonna be the candidate unless he dies/has a major health scare that makes him resign.
Nickelz
+2
Level 66
Jan 15, 2023
Personally, I think he's too old. We need new, younger candidates, no older than 50.
Neodymium
+1
Level 59
Jan 21, 2023
Nebraska just can't choose huh.....
Neodymium
+2
Level 59
Jan 21, 2023
This vote-cracking spoiler effect is why we need ranked choice voting.
NV1
+1
Level 51
Feb 22, 2023
NC voted for Trump by 1 in '20; it'll be Safe Dem in 2024, regardless of the circumstances. Nevada and Arizona easily go blue as well. Ohio, Iowa, (maybe Missouri and Kansas) will probably go blue by lower margins. Lastly, I don't understand why Michigan would be Likely R; probably Biden by 10+.

The main point I would like to send out is that the GOP base is very conflicted on the candidates, and should an election like this happen, DeSantis would probably get ~65% to Trump's ~35% of the vote in a hypothetical matchup. The rust belt would be Trump's support base. I would also like to point out that the most likely scenario is that Biden wins the Democratic nomination, while Trump wins the Republican nomination; I'm no Republican, but you can't conclude that DeSantis will be the nominee merely due to the party's elite and powerful supporting DeSantis, as, afterall, Trump did win in 2016.

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