The Quizmaster's 2023 Predictions Revisited
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First published: Friday December 29th, 2023
First published: Friday December 29th, 2023
+45
Last January, I made my second annual Official Predictions™ for the coming year. Once again, I was hilariously wrong about lots of things. Let's see how I did.
Events rated by me as having a 80% chance or higher of occurring
Expected: 10.52
Actual: 11
99 World population increases in 2023
95 The #1 grossing movie worldwide is part of an existing movie franchise
I'm marking this as a no, but in my heart it's a yes. The highest-grossing movie was Barbie, which is clearly a franchise movie. It is not, however, part of an existing "movie franchise". One thing that superforecasters do well is pay attention to nitpicky details. I failed to do that here and my prediction looks foolish as a result.
92 Xi still leader of China
90 Kim Jong-un still leader of North Korea
88 Charles III still king of the United Kingdom
87 I still moderate quizzes nearly every day
86 Joe Biden still President of the U.S.
85 Mark Zuckerburg still CEO of Meta
85 Vladimir Putin still President of Russia
85 Elon Musk still CEO of Tesla
85 Chicago July 2022 estimated population lower than 2021
Chicago lost another 32,990 residents.
80 Twitter monthly active users still at 80% or more of current levels
Many were predicting doom for Twitter, but network effects are powerful. Twitter traffic appears to be higher than ever.
80 Ali Khameini still Supreme Leader of Iran
Events rated by me as having a 50–80% chance of occurring
Expected: 8.05
Actual: 7
75 Andy Jassy still CEO of Amazon
75 Lebron James active on an NBA roster
70 More JetPunk quizzes taken in 2023 than 2022
60 There is a new oldest living person in the world
Sadly, Lucile Randon died just a couple of weeks after I made this prediction. At age 118, she was the fourth oldest person to ever live.
60 Ron DeSantis announces he is running for President
60 U.S. enters recession at some point during the year according to NBER
Quizmasters have predicted nine of the last five recessions. I should have stuck to base rates and had this much lower.
55 U.S. official unemployment below 5%
50 A superhero movie is the #1 grossing movie for the entire year worldwide
More good news!
50 Price of oil (WTI) over $100/barrel
50 extremeweatherwatch.com gets more page views than JetPunk on at least one day of the year
It never even came close.
50 Ceasefire in the Ukraine/Russia war
50 Gold over $2000/oz
50 Tom Brady active on an NFL roster
50 Euro worth less than $1 at end of year
Events rated by me as having a 20–50% chance of occurring
Expected: 3.4
Actual: 4
40 The S&P 500 finishes the year positive
Again, I should stay closer to base rates and further away from hunches. The S&P goes up more than it goes down, so even though many were predicting a bad year, base rates would indicate a greater than 50% chance of a positive year.
40 WHO officially declares the pandemic over
The WHO declared an end to the "international emergency", but not to the pandemic. This prediction was clearly a mistake by me. The WHO has still not declared an end to the Cholera pandemic which started in 1961. It would seem they only declare pandemics as having started, never as ended.
35 Average price of gas in the U.S. above $4/gallon on Dec 31
30 A new Taylor Swift song reaches #1 on the U.S. pop charts
Two songs: "Cruel Summer" and "Is It Over Now?"
30 Value of Binance coin (BNB) declines by 90% or more
This prediction was obviously way too bold and showed my ignorance of how tokens work. But, in a way, my prediction had some merit. Binance is clearly a shady company. In November, they pled guilty to money laundering and sanctions violations – paying a $2.7 billion fine. Nevertheless, Binance was still more than able to keep the nominal price of its token high. I still think it's likely that Binance coin will join FTX coin in the Ponzi graveyard. But they can probably keep the fugazi going for a long time.
25 U.S. inflation (trailing 12 months) above 5%
25 New record set for world's heaviest pumpkin
The new record holder weighs 2,749 pounds (1,247.9 kilograms)!
25 Bitcoin finishes year below $10,000
25 Capital added, removed, or name change on "Capitals of the World" quiz
25 AMC theaters declares bankruptcy
The stock declined by about 85% but it's not bankrupt yet.
20 Average home price in the U.S. increases during 2023 according to Zillow
Incredibly, housing prices notched a small annual gain. I really need to learn to stick closer to base rates.
20 TikTok banned in the United States
Events rated by me as having a less than 20% chance of occurring
Expected: 1.33
Actual: 1
15 More than 1 million JetPunk quizzes taken in a single day in 2023
We peaked at 738,939 on March 28.
15 Lewis Hamilton wins the F1 championship
15 Elon Musk is world's richest person
15 Seattle has at least one day of 100 °F or higher
12 There is a country name change on the "Countries of the World" quiz
10 New record for most expensive artwork ever sold
10 U.S. suffers 1000 or more military deaths in a new conflict
8 China invades Taiwan mainland
8 Country added or removed from "Countries of the World" quiz
7 9.0 or higher earthquake anywhere on Earth
5 Russia captures Kyiv at some point during the year
5 At least one Global Position System satellite is destroyed
4 Someone beats Usain Bolt's world record in the 100m dash
4 Nuclear detonation kills at least 1000 people
3 Someone beats Barry Bonds’s record of 73 home runs in a season
0.5 9.0 or higher earthquake on the Cascade fault
0.2 A geomagnetic storm greater than the Carrington Event (1859) takes place
0.2 Proof of extra-terrestrial intelligent life discovered
0.1 Asteroid impact kills more than 1000 people on Earth
negative ∞ Cyprus added to "Countries of Europe" quiz
Summary: Once again, I actually feel okay with my performance here. I clearly had a few bad mistakes but overall I feel like my percent chance estimates are fairly well calibrated. Stay tuned for the 2024 predictions coming in a few days!
Looking forward to seeing what you can concoct for 2024!
Technically Dec 31 hasn’t come yet, so maybe gas prices will skyrocket by Sunday! Lol
I guess maybe this one stuck out to me since it referenced a specific date
Pretty well done this time QM, looking forward to the '24 edition!
Also the thumbnail is brilliant humor🤣🤣
Overall Actual: 23
Amazing job Quizmaster! Can't wait for 2024 predictions.
Since I made my own predictions without looking at yours in the comments to your post, I will also revisit them here:
>80%: expected 10.65, actual 11 (12 prediction). Only the movie franchise didn't happen, which I had a bit lower than you at 91%.
50–80%: expected 3.3, actual 4 (5 predictions). Numbers too low to make meaningful conclusions, ceasefire at 55% the only one that didn't happen.
20-50%: expected 2.95, actual 1 (10 predictions). Guess I was somewhat underconfident here. The only one that happened is Musk, which I had at 30%.
Please keep these coming. I greatly respect you for putting yourself out like this, more people should do so.
Happy new year.